EU lawmakers approve Brexit terms
Departure of Britain leaves holes in bloc, raises questions on trade
BRUSSELS — Britain’s departure from the European Union was backed by European lawmakers Wednesday, after a debate that mixed words of love with warnings to the country not to seek too many concessions during upcoming trade talks on a future relationship.
The European Parliament approved Britain’s departure terms from the EU — the final major decision in the four-year Brexit saga. The vote was 621-49 in favor of the Brexit deal that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson negotiated with the other 27 EU leaders in the fall.
While backing Britain’s departure in the wake of the country’s June 2016 vote to leave, EU countries are already preparing for the possibility that talks on a new trade deal with Britain could collapse by the end of the year.
After Britain’s departure on Friday, the United Kingdom will remain within the EU’s economic arrangements until the end of the year, though it won’t have a say in policy as it will not be a member of the bloc.
“We will always love you, and you will never be far,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on a day when some leg
islators were moved to tears.
Britain is the first country to leave the EU. For many in Europe, the country’s official departure on Friday is a moment of enormous sadness.
The European Parliament’s chief Brexit official, Guy Verhofstadt, said that “this vote is not an adieu,” adding that it is “only an au revoir.”
With only two days to spare, legislators approved the withdrawal agreement that will end the 47-year membership of Britain. At the same time, the vote cut the 73 U.K. parliamentarians from the 751-seat legislature, where die-hard Brexiteers have been a disruptive force for years.
“That’s it. It’s all over,” said Nigel Farage, who has campaigned for Brexit for two decades. On departing the scene, the man who did much to move the country to vote for Brexit waved Britain’s Union Flag.
EU’S LOSS
But for the EU, the loss of Britain is a significant defeat. It represents a loss of size, reach, momentum and permanence.
“Brexit is a defeat, a rebellion against the concept that working together makes Europeans stronger,” said Rosa Balfour, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund.
It also could give the bloc less clout. “Any room the EU walks into, it will carry less weight than when the U.K. was a member — on trade, climate, defense,” said Paul Taylor, a senior fellow at Friends of Europe, a research institution.
At the same time, the shock of Britain’s departure from the EU has produced a unity among the remaining 27 nations that is hard to find on any other issue — neither migration nor Russia, the budget or even the supposedly common currency, the euro. As they have negotiated with Britain, the other 27 members have stayed together, much to London’s disappointment, and talk of other countries’ leaving the bloc has disappeared.
While Brexit originally caused panic in Brussels, it has turned out to be less of an epidemic than a vaccine, said Josep Borrell Fontelles, the bloc’s foreign policy chief. The process has been so chaotic and painful for Britain that even Europe’s populists have stopped talking about the likes of “Frexit,” “Nexit” or “Italexit,” referring to France, the Netherlands and Italy.
Because the European official who led the talks on the bloc’s behalf is now in charge of negotiating its future relationship with Britain, similar unity is to be expected. But it will have a defensive character, with Brussels intent on maintaining the integrity of the single market despite the desire to keep its large neighbor close.
Meanwhile, Scotland’s Parliament voted Wednesday to hold a new referendum on Scottish independence, a move intended to increase political pressure on the British government.
Lawmakers in the Edinburgh-based legislature voted 64-54 to call for holding a referendum “so that the people of Scotland can decide whether they wish it to become an independent country.”
However, the vote will have little immediate effect. A binding referendum can’t take place without the British government’s agreement, and Johnson this month turned down the Scottish government’s request for one on the independence question.
Johnson argues that a 2014 plebiscite, in which Scots rejected independence, was billed as a once-in-a-generation vote and should stand.
Scotland’s pro-independence government said Brexit changes everything. Britain as a whole voted narrowly in 2016 to leave the EU, but voters in Scotland by a large margin favored remaining in the bloc.
“We stand just two days from losing our EU membership and all of the rights that go with it,” said Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon.
“In my view, it is beyond doubt now that the only realistic way for Scotland to return to the heart of Europe and to ensure we get the governments we vote for is to become an independent country,” Sturgeon said.
Scottish lawmakers also voted to keep the EU flag flying outside the Scottish Parliament after Brexit.
TRADE TALKS
Now, negotiations between Britain and the EU shift to how they cooperate in the future. Britain is seeking to reach a comprehensive trade deal within 11 months.
That timetable is viewed as ambitious by many observers of trade discussions, which can often drag on for years.
“We will not yield to any pressure,” French President Emmanuel Macron said. “The priority is to define, in the short, medium and long term the interests of the European Union and to preserve them.”
The EU has said such a time span is far too short, and fears remain that a chaotic exit, averted this week, might still happen at the end of the year if the transition ends without any agreement in place.
“The urgency of the 11 months of the calendar should in no way lead us to rush, to accept compromises that would hurt our interests,” said Macron’s Europe minister, Amelie de Montchalin. “A trade accord is an agreement that lasts for several decades, and we should ensure that we always put fundamental issues of content before calendar issues.”
Even though the European Commission’s task force, led by Michel Barnier, is negotiating on the EU’s behalf, the effect of major nations such as France and Germany on those talks is important.
De Montchalin said that unless Britain asks to extend the transition period before the summer, both sides will be facing a cliff-edge scenario by the end of the year where borders could be closed, tariffs imposed and rules changed overnight, to the detriment of smooth trade.
“That’s why we had long discussions this morning on the need to prepare for such a scenario, through contingency measures that we have to keep active to be ready for all eventual scenarios,” de Montchalin said in Paris.
EU leaders have pledged to forge a close future relationship with Britain.
But the loss will ripple outward for years to come.
“It’s a defeat for everyone — for the European project, for Britain’s position in the world and for American interests, since the U.S. was the beneficiary of Britain in the EU,” said Ian Lesser, a former U.S. diplomat who is now the director of the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels office.
Britain acted as a sort of pragmatic balance between the more statist countries such as France and the more frugal, federal ones, such as Germany, Lesser noted. “So Brexit will make some of the divisions in the EU more stark and difficult to manage,” he said.
Britain’s departure “changes the balance within the EU and creates a power vacuum,” said Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. “The absence of Britain will make the relationship between France and Germany even more toxic,” he said.
“But it also destabilizes a lot of the countries, like the Dutch and the Nordics, on issues like the free market, anti-Russia policy and trans-Atlanticism,” Leonard added. “And it will further the imbalance between the eurozone and noneurozone countries, leaving those like Poland, Sweden and Denmark more exposed.”
Central European nations, Turkey and countries hoping to join the bloc may also feel Britain’s absence.
“The Turks are quite concerned because Britain has been a friend in terms of Turkish integration, even if accession is not on the cards,” Lesser said.
LEAVING A HOLE
Already, as European governments debate the next seven-year budget, there are disagreements on how large it should be, given the need to fill the hole the British will leave behind when the transition period ends in December.
And given proximity, twoway trade is enormous. According to a report issued last month, the EU is Britain’s largest trading partner, taking 45% of all British exports and providing 53% of all British imports in 2018, the latest figures from the House of Commons Library.
If Britain chooses to diverge significantly from European regulations, the hit to trade will be serious for both sides, if not equally shared. Britain matters far less to the EU, accounting for less than 10% of its overall trade.
A lot will depend on where Britain ends up landing. With the U.S. dangling a separate trade deal, “there are powerful forces shaping the Brexit debate in favor of de-aligning with the European Union and moving more toward the United States,” Balfour said.