The numbers are in

NOBODY is quite sure what’s coming down the pike in terms of this coronavirus. But that isn’t stopping some of the smarter folks from trying to figure it out. In one of his daily briefings, the governor said Arkansas has some models that show numbers for the future. They’re not good.

Gov. Asa Hutchinson told folks on Friday new models estimated the state’s virus cases could grow to 3,500 in the next two weeks. While most folks just want this to be over and life to go back to normal, it doesn’t look like that’s in the cards for the near future. Maybe even the less-near future.

“We at the same time want to do everything we can to beat that modeling,” the governor said. “We also want to prepare for the worst-case scenario.”

The numbers suggest that, as this thing peaks, perhaps 750 would likely need hospitalization. A quick check of the American Hospital Directory shows Arkansas has about 52 hospitals with a little over 7,800 beds. There are other sources that count the numbers differently, and give the state a few thousand more. Surely there are even different definitions of what makes a “hospital bed.” But go with 7,800, more or less, in the name of science.

While 750 is a much smaller number than 7,800, that number doesn’t take into account how many beds in a hospital are already filled with patients suffering from things other than covid-19, things like cancer, flu, heart disease and more. Then there are expectant mothers who are waiting to give birth. Suddenly, that 7,800 beds doesn’t look quite as bountiful if 750 new patients pop up in two weeks.

The numbers don’t take into account is where those beds are. It’s not 7,8009,000 beds divided by 52 hospitals evenly. Some hospitals, like Mena Regional Health System, have fewer than 100 beds, according to the directory.

This is why social distancing remains one of the most effective tools to combat this disease. Our state will likely continue to do everything it can to combat this pandemic, but the bulk of the work is on the citizenry. Stay home and wash your hands. We need to beat 3,500. Lives depend on it.