Delayed, deferred

That’s the way this works

HENRY DAVID Thoreau once said some circumstantial evidence is very strong. As when you find a trout in the milk.

The governor of Arkansas and his medical experts have their evidence, too, and have decided that the state is not ready to move into the second phase of relaxed restrictions.

The gate to Phase Two is shut. And should be. And will (probably) remain shut until the number of covid-19 cases in Arkansas starts a downward trend again.

For a couple of weeks now, Arkansans have watched Asa Hutchinson and Dr. Nate Smith at their daily pressers, and many of us had good reason for optimism: The number of coronavirus cases seemed to have peaked a few weeks ago. Not only that, but the number of those in the hospital have tracked downward, too. And the number of deaths had slowed to a crawl. Things were looking up, or rather down, as the helpful charts at the press briefings showed several trajectories heading south.

Thus, the state passed through Gate No. 1, and pushed the economic door slightly ajar. Gyms could open. Restaurants could open. Salons could open. But with notable restrictions. At our gym, for example, five of every six cardio machines are off-limits. And masks are required except when working out.

This reopening plan has one considerable advantage. It’s a similar advantage of charter schools: When a charter school fails, it can be shut down. And replaced with something else.

The plan to reopen the state economy could always be reversed. We can go back through the gate we just came in through. Or we can be delayed taking another step on this path. Nothing in this plan is permanent.

This week, as it so happens, there was an uptick in the number of covid-19 cases. Gov. Hutchinson didn’t appear overly happy Thursday when he announced that the state’s official count went up by 130. And the number couldn’t be mitigated because of a breakout in one of the jails. The increase included 113 people in the community. That’s a record. Or was as of Thursday.

Phase Two of getting back to normal could have started Monday. If things had gone perfectly in this imperfect world.

“We’re not prepared to go into Phase Two next Monday, so in that sense, it does delay us,” the governor said. “As to what day that will be, we’ll just have to wait and see.”

That’s the way this works.

The governor and Dr. Smith have warned several times in the last six weeks that folks should remain cautious. And not take this thing lightly just because the gyms are open. There is anecdotal and circumstantial evidence that many of us have not been. Then there is hard evidence, such as those 130 new cases.

Strength. And patience. And, above all, diligence.

We’ll get there, Arkansas. How fast, however, is up to us.