How big could this be?

After the 2016 shocker, Democrats, rightfully so, are nervous to the point of superstitious about believing their candidate is ahead.

That is a reliable rule of thumb for political operatives and partisans. However, it may lead to vastly underestimating a political tsunami, a shift of as much as 10 points across the board.

Biden’s national lead averages about nine points, according to RealClearPolitics. He has not trailed in any national public poll conducted by a highly rated pollster since February. In some respects, however, state polling is more startling because it shows states in play that have been in the Republicans’ column for years.

Texas is indicative of the magnitude of the change that might be in the offing. Trump won Texas by about nine points in 2016. In the RealClearPolitics average, it now is a dead heat. Trump barely won Wisconsin in 2016; he is down an average of more than six points now.

The caveats here should be in bold 24-point type. While polls show so many Democratic leads, the race very well can and probably will narrow, as some Republican voters fall prey to the “Biden is a socialist!” hooey.

My point, though, is that we should not ignore the possibility that we are on the cusp of a dramatic shift in the electorate that would not merely rebuild the Big Blue Wall in the Rust Belt but extend Democrats’ reach into the Sunbelt.

I would argue that right now we are more likely to see a Biden blowout than a Trump win. But remember, things change sometimes faster and more significantly than we can imagine.