State notches another 1,848 covid-19 cases

Upticks bode ill for holidays, official says

The estimated number of covid-19 cases in Arkansas increased by 1,848 Saturday to 132,166, the state Health Department announced Saturday.

Of those 16,553 are active cases, up 780 from Friday.

Recent numbers are “alarmingly high,” said state Epidemiologist Dr. Jennifer Dillaha.

“It’s not a good sign for the upcoming holidays,” she said. “I think people need to really think carefully about their plans for the end of November.”

The estimated death toll Saturday climbed by 11 to 2,159, with covid-19 confirmed in 1,979 fatalities and the probable cause of death in 180 others, the department said. The 11 additional deaths were all confirmed covid-19 cases, the department said.

Of the 1,848 new cases, 1,349 were classified as “confirmed” while another 499 were labeled “probable cases.”

Of the 16,553 active cases,

12,147 are confirmed while the rest are classified as probable.

Officials are urging people to avoid large gatherings, including big seasonal celebrations, warning that they could accelerate the spread.

“We will not be able to have Thanksgiving as usual and be safe in terms of avoiding the virus,” Dillaha said.

Covid-19 rates are at alltime highs across much of the country, and Arkansas hasn’t been spared.

The state broke its single-day record for new covid-19 cases Wednesday, with 1,962 reported. Friday surpassed it, with 2,312.

While the figures dipped Saturday, that doesn’t mean the latest wave has peaked.

Case reportings are often slower on the weekends, Dillaha noted. New cases the previous Saturday were 1,598, so week-to-week, the numbers were up.

Statewide, 812 covid-19 patients are hospitalized, down from 826 Friday. The number of patients on ventilators was 121, up 7 from the previous day.

Since the declaration of a public health emergency in March, a total of 7,847 people have been hospitalized in Arkansas because of covid-19. Of those, 894 cases were severe enough to require ventilators.

Despite efforts to curb the spread, “the number of cases is moving in the wrong direction. That should be very alarming to everyone,” Dillaha said.

Pulaski County led the state with 201 new confirmed and probable cases Saturday, with Washington County just behind at 193 cases.

The next three counties were Benton, with 140; Saline, with 87; and White with 80.

Some cases are classified as probable because they are based on faster, less-reliable testing methods that can provide results in minutes instead of days.

In other cases, they are based on the symptoms, as well as the likelihood of exposure. If a mother has been diagnosed with covid-19, for example, and her spouse and children appear to be sick as well, the other household members may be classified as “probable cases,” despite lacking positive test results.

Young Arkansans are more likely to survive covid-19 than their grandparents and great-grandparents.

The virus continues to take a heavy toll on the elderly and those with preexisting health conditions.

Thus far, 873 nursing home residents have died. People age 65 and older account for 77.4% of all deaths.

In five counties, the death toll has reached triple digits: Pulaski (235); Washington (163); Benton (134); Sebastian (110) and Jefferson (103).

After eight months of community spread, no area of the state has been spared.

The number of confirmed cases has surpassed 100 in each of the state’s 75 counties; it is above 1,000 in 32 counties. Pulaski County, with 14,256 leads the state.

Covid-19-related deaths have been reported everywhere except in Calhoun and Woodruff counties.

Any time large groups of people assemble, particularly indoors, the risk of transmission increases.

“We’re seeing spread from social gatherings such as weddings, or funerals or parties. And we’re also seeing spread in places like churches,” Dillaha said.

Often, the groups have opted not to wear masks or to socially distance, she said.

The covid-19 caseload, for health care providers, is already high.

“Hospitals are very stretched in terms of their capacity. Staffing is becoming an issue,” she said.

It’s not enough to have a hospital bed available. There must be staffing, as well, to treat the sick, she noted.

If the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is correct, the coming months will be grim. The institute, whose work has been cited by the White House, estimates that Arkansas’ death toll will nearly double in the coming months, reaching 3,963 by March 1.

Mask wearing will lower the toll, the institute’s models show. Based on a number of surveys, the institute estimates that mask use in Arkansas is now 64%. That’s slightly lower than the national average of 68% but substantially higher than the average in Oklahoma — 56%.

With the pandemic showing no signs of slowing, state officials are trying to better prepare for the months ahead.

On Friday, Gov. Asa Hutchinson appointed a 20-person task force to study ways of curbing the spread of the virus and helping hospitals manage the growing number of covid-19 patients.

Phillip Gilmore, chief executive of Ashley County Medical Center in Crossett and a member of the newly created task force, said his hospital hasn’t seen many covid-19 patients yet but has been preparing for a potential surge.

For instance, the 33-bed hospital converted an eightbed geriatric psychiatric unit into an backup intensive care unit with negative air pressure and is changing the ventilation to create a permanent negative air pressure system in the regular, six-bed intensive care unit.

“We’re all monitoring this surge or this growing number, which is concerning, and we all want to do whatever we can to encourage our citizens to use every precaution they can,” such as practicing social distancing and wearing a mask in public, said Gilmore, who is president of the state Board of Health.

In Batesville, White River Medical Center is also preparing, spokesman Michele Wood said.

She said the hospital, which has 13 ventilators, recently bought 12 more that it plans to install next week. Anesthesia machines and other equipment that could be converted into ventilators could provide an additional 15 ventilators if the need arises, she said.

As of Friday, the 224-bed hospital had 19 covid-19 patients, including nine who were in intensive care and three who were on ventilators. Five non-covid patients were also on ventilators in the intensive care unit, she said.

“We don’t have the high numbers of some other hospitals right now, but we just hear an increasing number of cases in our 10-county service area,” she said.

While the task force is focused on physical health, Democrats would like to see it consider economic well-being as well.

The Democratic Party of Arkansas released a statement saying the panel should also look at ways to help employees who are forced to take off work after testing positive or being required to quarantine.

The Families First Coronavirus Response Act, passed by Congress earlier this year, requires employers with fewer than 500 employees to provide at least 80 hours of paid sick leave for full-time workers who are required to isolate or quarantine through the end of this year. The requirement doesn’t extend to larger businesses, however, or cover employees who are required to quarantine for more than two weeks during the year.

“Short of locking this thing completely down, we’ve got to take every step we can to ensure that everyone reports, that everyone is eating and that the fear of an economic, personal economic collapse isn’t what is keeping them from doing the right thing,” state party chairman Michael John Gray said.

Asked Friday about reports of employees who were forced to go into quarantine without pay, Hutchinson said such issues would be outside of the task force’s scope.

“That can always be a point of discussion, but I would have to look into it further,” he said.

Gray also said the state should take action, using state taxpayer dollars if necessary, to help essential workers beyond those in the health care field.

“I think the governor just put out a budget with a bunch of new tax cuts in it, so apparently we’re in pretty good shape,” he said. “That’s what long-term reserve funds and rainy-day funds and emergency funds and surpluses are for, is to take care of us in times of need.”

Hutchinson spokesman Katie Beck declined to comment on Gray’s statement.