Back on the battlefield
Former president Donald Trump returned to the political hustings Sunday night, delivering a characteristically long, self-indulgent castigation of his political enemies.
In the short run, his CPAC appearance reestablishes himself as a force within the Republican Party. In the long run, however, it might come to be seen as his post-presidential high-water mark rather than the start of a Trumpian tidal wave.
Trump threw down the gauntlet against his intraparty foes. He said each of the 10 representatives and seven senators who voted to impeach or convict him deserved to face a primary challenge and be defeated.
Many in the audience cheered, but it is far from clear they constitute a majority of Republican primary voters. Trump’s challenge, however, means he has crossed his political Rubicon. He must win these challenges to maintain his influence. Anything else will reveal him to be a paper tiger.
The CPAC straw poll tantalizingly suggests that might be what happens. The January YouGov-Ethics and Public Policy Center poll of Trump voters, which I helped develop, shows that Trump’s base lies among “very conservative” voters. That’s exactly to whom CPAC appeals.
Yet 32 percent of CPAC attendees either thought that Trump should not run again in 2024 or had no opinion, and only 55 percent said they would vote for him in a GOP primary if he did.
This in turn suggests his opposition to incumbent Republicans might be less decisive than many think. Each of those members has carefully built up his or her own base of support over years. As impeachment and the Jan. 6 riot fade from view, those members’ opposition to the Biden agenda will likely be more important to GOP voters.
Indeed, Trump’s most prominent GOP foe, Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, is filling her daily Twitter feed with news of her staunch opposition to the House Democratic agenda. It’s far from clear that primary voters will care more about Trump’s personal grievances than their members’ actual behavior by next summer.
Trump has nonetheless tied himself to the mast of his challenges. Over the next year and a half, any sign that his targets might survive will be rightly interpreted as a vote against Trump’s leadership. This would likely cause Trump to double down, as that is what he always does when threatened.
Ancient Spartan mothers told their warrior sons to “come back with your shield or on it.” Trump is now back on the political battlefield. We’ll see how he returns.