Herd immunity may be building quickly

With two vaccines and after three weeks, we feel bulletproof! Vertis and I still wear masks to keep from being bad examples to those who haven’t had their shots. And I know there is still a six percent chance we could contract the virus, but almost no chance we would end up in a hospital.

That’s why we’re starting to feel liberated, and are preparing to move out of our hunkered-down mode.

We’re not the only ones opening up our lifestyles. Numerous states have started reducing their precautions, and that makes me consider where we are in conquering the pandemic. How big is the herd? When will this be totally over?

Let’s explore my idea of herd projections, which I think are why infections of covid-19 are dropping.

According to the CDC, we have about 77 million Americans who have had at least one shot, and two to three million folks are joining them every day. However, as a layman observer, I think we have a lot more in the herd. What about the almost 30 million who have had the virus and recovered?

I know there isn’t any scientific evidence that they are the same as vaccinated, but it seems that they got vaccinated the hard way by having the virus. Are the antibodies produced by the vaccine any different than what your body produces when you have the virus? Inquiring minds want to know. (My apologies to the National Enquirer.)

If you can’t tell one antibody from the next, we can group them together and add another 30 million to the herd. That puts us well over 100 million.

Next are the healthy individuals, especially the young, who had the virus, didn’t know it, and weren’t tested. Let’s add them to the herd—let’s say another 15 million— which makes the herd around 120 million.

How will we actually know the virus is on the way out? A good measure will be what happens after spring break, which by all accounts will be a series of super-spreader events like the 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally held in South Dakota in August.

TV images from bars and beaches in Florida and Texas show shoulder-to-shoulder unmasked college students, and the

CDC says this should spike the infection rate because for the most part they are not vaccinated.

Or are they? If we don’t see a spike, then several things are possible: 1. There are a lot of folks who have recovered from the virus. 2. The number of vaccinated Americans is much larger than we thought. 3. Many of the students have had the virus and didn’t know it. We’ll have to wait and see.

In the meantime, what should we do? The obvious choice is to get vaccinated when you are eligible. We must build the herd, and getting the virus is the hard way. There are a lot of individuals who have decided not to be vaccinated, and that’s their choice, but I counted the days until I was eligible because I figured being on a ventilator and dying would be a lot worse than any possible side effects from getting vaccinated.

Vertis and I had minor reactions to the vaccine. She had a slightly sore arm and fatigue for about 12 hours. I had a minor sore throat that lasted less than a day and a mild headache.

Contrast that with our daughter Lara and her 20-something son Coulter. He’s about as healthy as they come, but was more than a little casual about wearing a mask. Covid-19 bit him pretty badly with a loss of taste and smell, sore throat, and general tiredness. His mother, also in good health, had most of the same symptoms. They both missed work for nearly a week.

Let’s look ahead. From early partial studies, it seems fully vaccinated people don’t spread the virus. People who have contracted the virus and recovered also don’t seem to be spreading the virus or getting it a second time, which happens in only a few cases.

What should the average person do during this early stage of vaccinations, when it seems the more contagious mutated viruses are becoming the principal spreader of covid-19? The only ways to completely stamp it out are to get vaccinated or get the virus. I really don’t think that is a tough decision.

If the vaccinations continue to ramp up, and if we count the recovered as vaccinated, we could see the end of the pandemic by July 4 and completely open up the country.

Surely it’s everyone’s wish is to return to pre-pandemic America. And the only sure way, with the least amount of hospitalizations and deaths, is to get vaccinated. Take the shot!