Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

Unvaccinat­ed account for most virus deaths

- COMPILED BY DEMOCRAT-GAZETTE STAFF FROM WIRE REPORTS

Nearly all covid-19 deaths in the U.S. now are people who weren’t vaccinated, a demonstrat­ion of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to fewer than 300 — could be practicall­y zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.

An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrou­gh” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 853,000 hospitaliz­ations. That’s about 0.1%.

And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 covid-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.

The AP analyzed figures

provided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The CDC itself has not estimated what percentage of hospitaliz­ations and deaths are in fully vaccinated people, citing limitation­s in the data.

Among them: Only about 45 states report breakthrou­gh infections, and some are more aggressive than others in looking for such cases. So the data probably understate­s such infections, CDC officials said.

Still, the overall trend that emerges from the data echoes what many health care authoritie­s are seeing around the country and what top experts are saying.

Earlier this month, Andy Slavitt, a former adviser to the Biden administra­tion on covid-19, suggested that 98% to 99% of the Americans dying of the coronaviru­s are unvaccinat­ed.

And CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday that the vaccine is so effective that “nearly every death, especially among adults, due to covid-19, is, at this point, entirely preventabl­e.” She called such deaths “particular­ly tragic.”

Deaths in the U.S. have plummeted from a peak of more than 3,400 a day on average in mid-January, one month into the vaccinatio­n drive.

About 63% of all vaccine-eligible Americans — everyone 12 and older — have received at least one dose, and 53% are fully vaccinated, according to the CDC. While vaccines remain scarce in much of the world, the U.S. supply is so abundant and demand has slumped so dramatical­ly that shots sit unused.

Ross Bagne, a 68-yearold small-business owner in Cheyenne, Wyo., was eligible for the vaccine in early February but didn’t get it. He died June 4, infected and unvaccinat­ed, after spending more than three weeks in the hospital, his lungs filling with fluid. He was unable to swallow because of a stroke.

“He never went out, so he didn’t think he would catch it,” said his grieving sister, Karen McKnight. She wondered: “Why take the risk of not getting vaccinated?”

The preventabl­e deaths will continue, experts predict, with unvaccinat­ed pockets of the nation experienci­ng outbreaks in the fall and winter. Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle, said modeling suggests that the nation will hit 1,000 deaths per day again next year.

In Arkansas, which has one of the lowest vaccinatio­n rates in the nation, with only about 33% of the population fully protected, cases, hospitaliz­ations and deaths are rising.

“It is sad to see someone go to the hospital or die when it can be prevented,” Gov. Asa Hutchinson tweeted as he urged people to get shots.

In Seattle’s King County, the public health department found only three deaths during a recent 60-day period in people who were fully vaccinated. The rest, some 95% of 62 deaths, had had no vaccine or just one shot.

“Those are all somebody’s parents, grandparen­ts, siblings and friends,” said Dr. Mark Del Beccaro, who helps lead a vaccinatio­n outreach program in King County. “It’s still a lot of deaths, and they’re preventabl­e deaths.”

In the St. Louis area, more than 90% of patients hospitaliz­ed with covid-19 have not been vaccinated, said Dr. Alex Garza, a hospital administra­tor who directs a metropolit­an-area task force on the outbreak.

“The majority of them express some regret for not being vaccinated,” Garza said. “That’s a pretty common refrain that we’re hearing from patients with covid.”

The stories of unvaccinat­ed people dying may convince some people that they should get the shots, but young adults — the group least likely to be vaccinated — may be motivated more by a desire to protect their loved ones, said David Michaels, an epidemiolo­gist at George Washington University’s school of public health in the nation’s capital.

Others need paid time off to get the shots and deal with any side effects, Michaels said.

The Occupation­al Safety and Health Administra­tion this month began requiring health care employers, including hospitals and nursing homes, to provide such time off. But Michaels, who headed OSHA under President Barack Obama, said the agency should have gone further and applied the rule to meat and poultry plants and other food operations, as well as other places with workers at risk.

Bagne, who lived alone, ran a business helping people incorporat­e their companies in Wyoming for the tax advantages. He was winding down the business, planning to retire, when he got sick, emailing his sister in April about an illness that had left him dizzy and disoriente­d.

“Whatever it was. That bug took a LOT out of me,” he wrote.

As his health deteriorat­ed, a neighbor finally persuaded him to go to the hospital.

“Why was the messaging in his state so unclear that he didn’t understand the importance of the vaccine? He was a very bright guy,” his sister said. “I wish he’d gotten the vaccine, and I’m sad he didn’t understand how it could prevent him from getting covid.”

SHORT OF GOAL

With the July Fourth approachin­g, the White House acknowledg­ed this week that President Joe Biden will fall short of his 70% vaccinatio­n goal. The missed milestone is notable in a White House that has been organized around a strategy of underpromi­sing and overdelive­ring for the American public.

White House officials, while acknowledg­ing that they are set to fall short, insist they’re unconcerne­d. “We don’t see it exactly like something went wrong,” press secretary Jen Psaki said this week, stressing that Americans are better off than they were when Biden announced the goal.

As of Wednesday, 65.6% of Americans 18 and older had received at least one shot, according to the CDC. The figure is expected to be above 67% by July 4.

A half-dozen officials involved in the vaccinatio­n campaign, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the missed target candidly, pointed to a combinatio­n of factors, including the lessened sense of urgency that followed early success in the vaccinatio­n campaign; a decision to reach for a higher goal; and unexpected­ly strong recalcitra­nce among some Americans.

Nonetheles­s, the White House says it’s not letting up on its efforts. Biden flew to Raleigh, N.C., on Thursday to urge people to roll up their sleeves as part of a nationwide month of action to drive up the vaccinatio­n rate before the holiday. The White House is rolling out increasing­ly localized programs to encourage specific communitie­s to get vaccinated.

“The best way to protect yourself against the virus and its variants is to be fully vaccinated,” Biden said after touring a mobile vaccinatio­n unit, and meeting with frontline workers and volunteers. “It works. It’s free. It’s safe. It’s easy.”

The White House always expected a drop-off in vaccinatio­n rates, but not as sharp as has proved to be the case. The scale of American reluctance to get vaccinated remains a source of global curiosity, particular­ly as many nations are still scrambling for doses to protect their most vulnerable population­s.

When the 70% goal was first announced, more than 800,000 Americans on average were getting their first vaccine doses each day — down from a high of nearly 2 million per day in early April. Now that figure is below 300,000.

Paradoxica­lly, officials believe the strong response to the early vaccinatio­n campaign has served to reduce motivation to get shots. One of the most potent motivators was the high rate of covid-19 cases and deaths. Now that those figures have dropped to levels not seen since the onset of the pandemic, officials say it’s become harder to convince Americans of the urgency — particular­ly for younger population­s that already knew they were at low risk of serious complicati­ons from the virus.

Separately, two officials involved in the crafting of the 70% goal said officials knew 65% would have been a safer bet, but the White House wanted to reach for a figure closer to experts’ projection­s of what would be needed for herd immunity to bring down cases and deaths. Aiming for the higher target, the officials said, was seen as adding to the urgency of the campaign and probably increased the vaccinatio­n rate above where it would have been with a more modest goal.

Other officials said the White House, which has always cast the vaccinatio­n campaign as “hard,” neverthele­ss failed to grasp the resistance of some Americans.

“The hesitation among younger Americans and among Trump voters has been too hard to overcome,” said GOP pollster Frank Luntz, who has worked with the White House and outside groups to promote vaccinatio­ns. “They think they are making a statement by refusing to be vaccinated. For Trump voters, it’s a political statement. For younger adults, it’s about telling the world that they are immune.”

Of the White House, Luntz said, “I think they did as good a job as they could have done.”

EVICTIONS BAN

The Biden administra­tion Thursday extended the nationwide ban on evictions for a month to help millions of tenants unable to make rent payments during the pandemic.

The CDC extended the policy from June 30 until July 31, but said “this is intended to be the final extension of the moratorium.”

An administra­tion official said the last month would be used for an “all hands on deck” multiagenc­y campaign to prevent a wave of evictions. One of the reasons the moratorium was put in place was to prevent further spread of covid-19 by people put out on the streets and into shelters.

By the end of March, 6.4 million American households were behind on their rent, according to the Department of Housing and Urban Developmen­t.

As of June 7, roughly 3.2 million people in the U.S. said they faced eviction in the next two months, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey.

SHOTS REQUIRED

San Francisco said Wednesday that it would require all 35,000 of its employees to be vaccinated or risk losing their jobs, making it one of the largest U.S. municipali­ties to impose such a mandate.

The requiremen­t will take effect once a covid vaccine receives full authorizat­ion from the Food and Drug Administra­tion. The vaccines are currently being used in the United States under emergency authorizat­ions.

City officials said the requiremen­t would promote safety in municipal workplaces and among the general public, given that police officers, firefighte­rs, building inspectors and other city workers come into regular contact with members of the community.

“With those two things in mind — the safety of our employees and the safety of the public we serve — we made this decision,” said Carol Isen, San Francisco’s director of human resources. “We believe this step is a simple one to take. It’s safe, it’s very effective, and it’s going to guarantee the safety of all.”

San Francisco has one of the highest vaccinatio­n rates of any major U.S. city, with 80% of residents 12 and older having received at least one dose and 70% fully vaccinated, Mayor London Breed said this month. Isen said informal surveys of city workers — many of whom live in other municipali­ties where vaccinatio­n rates are lower — suggested that at least 60% were fully vaccinated.

Under the policy starting Monday, city employees will be required to show proof of their vaccinatio­n status within 30 days. Officials said they would redouble efforts to get shots to those who haven’t had them, while allowing workers to request exemptions on medical or religious grounds.

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