’20 census left out 1.6 million people, analysis finds
The 2020 census missed an estimated 1.6 million people, but given the hurdles posed by the pandemic and natural disasters, the undercount was smaller than expected, according to an analysis by a think tank that did computer simulations of the nation’s head count.
The analysis, done by the Urban Institute and released Tuesday, found that people of color, renters, noncitizens, children and people living in Texas — the state that saw the nation’s largest growth — were most likely to be missed, though by smaller margins than some had projected for a count conducted in the midst of a global pandemic.
Still, those shortfalls could affect the drawing of political districts and the distribution of federal spending.
The analysis estimates that there was a 0.5% undercount of the nation’s population during the 2020 census. If that modeled estimate holds true, it would be greater than the 0.01% undercount in the 2010 census but in the same range as the 0.49% undercount in the 2000 census.
The 2020 head count of the nation’s 331 million residents last year faced unprecedented challenges from the covid-19 pandemic, wildfires in the West, hurricanes on the Gulf Coast and attempts at politicization by the Trump administration.
“The fact that the undercount wasn’t larger is surprising and certainly a good news story,” said Diana Elliott, principal research associate at the Urban Institute. “This undercount suggests the 2020 census may not be as close in accuracy as 2010, but it may not be as dire as some had feared.”
The official undercount or overcount of the census won’t be known until next year when the Census Bureau releases a report card on its accuracy.
The bureau’s post-enumeration survey measures accuracy by independently surveying a sample of the population and estimating how many people and housing units were missed or counted erroneously.
The Urban Institute created computer simulations that modeled the count by demographic characteristics and geography.
Despite the smaller-than-expected undercount, it showed wide ranges based on race, ethnic background and age, and among states and metropolitan areas.
In 2020, Black and Hispanic people had net undercounts of more than 2.45% and 2.17%, respectively, according to the Urban Institute estimates, while they were respectively 2.07% and 1.54% in 2010.
There was an overcount of white residents by 0.39%, according to the Urban Institute, and undercounts of Asians, American Indians and Hawaiian or Pacific Islanders by 0.6%, 0.36% and 1.5%, respectively.
Children younger than 5 were undercounted by 4.86%, households with noncitizens by 3.36% and renters by 2.13%, according to the Urban Institute.
The fact that minority groups continue to be undercounted is “unacceptable,” said Cara Brumfield, a senior policy analyst at the Georgetown Center on Poverty and Inequality.
“I don’t think we can be satisfied with that,” Brumfield said.
Arturo Vargas, CEO of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, said the Urban Institute analysis was yet another sign that Hispanics were undercounted. The first indication was the release of the apportionment numbers in April in which three states with large Hispanic populations — Arizona, Florida and Texas — failed to gain or didn’t get as many congressional seats as expected, he said.
One of the nation’s leading civil rights organizations, the National Urban League — not to be confused with the Urban Institute — said recently that an undercount of Black residents could rob African American communities of billions of dollars in federal funding and three congressional seats.
National Urban League President and CEO Marc Morial blamed the Trump administration, which attempted to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census form and tried to end the head count early.
The National Urban League has called for congressional hearings to look into the extent of political interference in the 2020 census.
“This isn’t simply an unfortunate accident,” Morial said. “It’s the result of a deliberate campaign of sabotage intended to steer political influence and public resources away from communities of color.”
The official undercount or overcount of the census won’t be known until next year when the Census Bureau releases a report card on its accuracy.