Safe state statistics

It’s always interesting when WalletHub posts another of its statistical state comparison studies. A recent report that showed up in my email inbox was 2021’s Safest States in America.

Quick reminder: these “studies” aren’t studies in the traditional sense. There’s no primary research involved. All WalletHub does is take secondary data in several categories that it deems intrinsic to state “safety” and compile, analyze and present that data in relative measure by state.

It’s a valid argument to claim that the results are more entertaining than truly informative, but one would be remiss to dismiss their value altogether.

In determining the most secure states, WalletHub used 55 key data-set metrics, running from vaccination rates to unemployment percentages to violent crimes per capita.

Those metrics were compared state-by-state in five dimensions: 1. Personal and Residential Safety; 2. Financial Safety; 3. Road Safety; 4. Workplace Safety; and 5. Emergency Preparedness.

Each dimension was allotted a percentage of a total 100-point scale, which was divided by the number of metrics in each category. Additionally, some individual metrics were fully weighted (as a percentage of the dimension’s total points), or double- or half-weighted. The weighting obviously affects scoring, and no rationale was given on the reasoning behind the weighting variances.

With that many statistical inputs, breaking them down can offer additional insights beyond a straight rank of the “safest states,” which in this case lands Arkansas as 47th—one of the four least-safe states overall.

But the aggregate score is arguably misleading.

For example, there were three covid-related metrics among the 23 contained in Personal and Residential Safety (which had 40 total points, or 40 percent of the overall scale), and all three were double-weighted. But the presence of terrorist attacks and the number of mass shootings got only full weight, not double. And drug abuse and overdose deaths per capita got only half weight.

There were 19 metrics in Financial Safety (15 total points), but the only one to get double weight was unemployment rate. The “share of people not saving money for children’s college” was weighted the same as the “share of households unable to pay energy bill in past 12 months,” even though the risks experienced in daily living are hardly the same for those two categories.

Arkansas scored the same in both of those dimensions at 48th, but improved markedly in the remaining three: 40th in Road Safety (15 points), 38th in Workplace Safety (15 points) and 32nd in Emergency Preparedness (15 points).

That last category included only two metrics, both of which referred to climate disasters causing $1 billion+ in damages over the past 40 years. Drawn from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data compiled in the National Centers for Environmental Information, the dimension has little to do with emergency preparedness as average citizens might think of it, such as the prevalence of ambulances, fire departments and first responders in a community or society, or insurance ratings, etc.

In Workplace Safety, presence of OSHA plans got double weight, twice that of injuries and illnesses per 10,000 full-time workers. And with only four metrics, the bureaucracy measure was disproportionate to actual incidents that represent days, lives and productivity lost.

Among Road Safety’s seven metrics, those double-weighted were fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles of travel and pedestrian and pedal-cyclist fatality rate per capita. Share of uninsured drivers got the same weight as DUIs per capita; again, an unexplained disparity of true risk.

Nevertheless, WalletHub stories are commonly thought-provoking. They do a good job of grabbing attention, and “best and worst” lists are popular.

The important thing to remember is that their headline, their conclusion—the Safest States in America—isn’t the takeaway. It’s the starting point for more investigation, discovery and learning.

It’s a prime example of the proverbial cliché: New information broadens horizons. The more we learn about other states, the more we also learn about ourselves.

Part of the problem with any statewide analysis is that data winds up being artificially levelized. There are parts of Arkansas that are far less safe than others, and some places in Arkansas that feel as safe as anyplace in Vermont, WalletHub’s Safe State champion.

So rest easy, neighbors. The Natural State isn’t really the 47th least-safe state, no matter how WalletHub slices and dices statistics.

But in some of those 55 metrics, our place on the spectrum definitely needs to dramatically improve. Notably, Arkansas tied for dead last in a couple of individual areas with genuinely dangerous outcomes.

In assaults per capita, Arkansas’ rate was 11 times worse than the best state’s (Maine). And in fatal occupational injuries per total workers, the difference was 10 times worse between Arkansas and top-rated New Hampshire.

The end goal isn’t to move up WalletHub’s safe-states list. Changing a few metrics, or weighting a few metrics differently, would change the rankings.

Not leading the nation in assaults or workplace fatalities means fewer citizens are harmed and fewer workers are killed. Translating identified deficiencies into to-do items at the right leadership level changes lives for the better.

That’s the takeaway.