Arkansas Democrat-Gazette

Ask a shopper

- MICHAEL R. STRAIN

The robust pace of U.S. consumer spending looks at first glance like evidence that inflation isn’t hurting a resilient U.S. economy. And that’s how a recent government report on strong October retail sales growth has widely been interprete­d.

Look harder, though, and a more ominous omen appears: one of inflationa­ry psychology becoming entrenched.

Data from the Commerce Department show that retail sales increased by 1.7 percent in October, the largest since March. Consumers have money and they’re spending it. That looks like prosperity, not a portent of doom. But part of the reason sales boomed appears to be that households did more Christmas shopping than usual in October.

And look under the hood of the Commerce Department’s report. Outlays at health and personal-care stores dropped by 0.6 percent. Consumers spent 0.7 percent less on clothing and accessorie­s in October than in September. Restaurant spending was flat.

That’s the kind of behavior that inflation can usually be expected to generate. If restaurant meals and clothing cost more, people are likely to buy less of them, and in October, that’s what happened.

And that is consistent with data showing that consumers are gloomy. According to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment index, fear of inflation is growing. Consumers expect prices to rise by nearly 5 percent over the next year. According to the survey, one in four consumers said their living standards were reduced in November due to inflation.

But rising prices and souring sentiment did not dampen all components of consumer spending last month. Spending at department stores was up 2.2 percent relative to the prior month. Sales at online and mail-order retailers grew by 4 percent, and at other retailers by 2.8 percent. Electronic­s and appliance stores saw sales surge by 3.8 percent in October after falling for the prior three months.

These are typical venues for Christmas shopping. But Christmas shopping in October is unusually early. It may be that consumers are less worried about price increases than supply chain disruption­s that could make it difficult for them to purchase holiday gifts.

But inflation is surely a concern. As long as consumers worry that gifts will become more expensive as December approaches, the tentacles of inflation are stretching into the consumer psyche.

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