Crazy like a fox?

Watching Vladimir Putin at his year-end press conference, one is tempted to ask whether the Russian president has gone mad. Here is a man leading a country that in the last few months has amassed tens of thousands of soldiers and advanced military equipment on Ukraine’s border, now asserting that it is Ukraine which is planning an invasion of Russia. Putin claimed (without evidence) that the U.S. intends to arm Ukraine with hypersonic missiles. “They just have to understand that we have nowhere left to retreat,” Putin said.

Sometimes this tactic is known as “the madman theory.” Former U.S. President Richard Nixon is said to have wanted geopolitical rivals such as the Soviet Union and China to believe he was volatile and unpredictable as a hedge against provocations from adversaries. Is Putin now doing the same thing?

It’s impossible to get inside the Russian leader’s head. But Putin’s brinksmanship has already paid modest dividends. President Joe Biden has offered diplomatic off-ramps to Putin, such as a NATO-Russia summit and high-level bilateral meetings to explore ways to ease tensions and address Russia’s security concerns with NATO and Ukraine.

So does Putin really believe that the country whose territory he has annexed is the real aggressor? Probably not. Does he really believe the U.S. would provide Ukraine with some of its most advanced military technology? Again, probably not.

But Putin clearly benefits from the perception that he is volatile enough to make good on his latest threats. If Biden believed Putin was rational, he would likely call Putin’s bluff.