India restarting restrictions as covid cases soar

NEW DELHI — Coronavirus cases fueled by the omicron variant are skyrocketing in India, prompting the federal government and states to reintroduce a series of restrictions.

Nighttime curfews are back. Restaurants and bars are running at half their capacity. Some states have closed schools and movie theaters. Large gatherings are being downsized.

But India’s political leaders have been busy on the campaign trail ahead of state elections, addressing packed rallies of tens of thousands of people, many of them not wearing masks.

The scenes are similar to last year’s election season, when the delta variant ravaged the country and made India one of the world’s worst-hit countries. Some political parties have begun to curtail their campaigns and halt a few rallies, but health experts worry that the lessons of last year have already been forgotten.

“The highly transmissible omicron variant chases and catches you. But our politicians are out there to welcome it with a hug,” said Dr. T. Jacob John, an Indian virologist. “I fear it is beginning to look a lot like last year.”

A surge of infections tore through India last year. It was partly fed by large crowds at election rallies, where politicians, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, often appeared without masks and addressed teeming crowds.

That surge left the country’s health system battered, with people begging for oxygen and hospital beds. Crematoriums ran out of space. Daily deaths topped 4,000 during the peak of the crisis, and at least 200,000 deaths were reported between March and May, a number that’s widely believed to be an undercount.

Health officials say the new surge is causing fewer deaths and that many cases are asymptomatic. But they warn against taking the omicron variant too lightly, adding that numerous cases, even if they’re milder, could still pressure the country’s fragile health system.

New daily cases have increased nearly fourfold in the past week. Hospital admissions are rising, and medical staffs in some states have been asked to cut short their winter holidays.

On Saturday, the Health Ministry said more than 141,986 cases had been reported in the previous 24 hours, a nearly 21% increase from the previous day.

Health experts say that increased social contact at packed election rallies is feeding the virus’s spread.

“The transmission chains that started at the beginning of the year due to these rallies will take months to burn out,” John said.

Over the past few weeks, Modi has addressed huge gatherings in several cities, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous state. Opponents of Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party have also hit the campaign trail, flouting health guidelines.

Last week, the Congress party organized a marathon in which thousands of people ran without masks and were packed so tightly that they collapsed onto each other. And the chief minister of New Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, contracted the virus after he was seen maskless while leading political rallies in multiple states.

With health experts warning of a rapid growth in infections, and with data suggesting that the virus is spreading faster than during the peak of last year’s surge, several political parties have started a course correction.

The Congress party said it is stopping political rallies in Uttar Pradesh and switching to virtual campaigning. A few other parties, including Modi’s, have followed suit. It’s unclear, however, whether they will cancel all scheduled rallies.

The elections are scheduled to begin Feb. 10 and end March 7. Results will be declared on March 10.

V.K. Paul, a doctor working with the government on its coronavirus response, said Wednesday that it was likely that “systems will be overwhelmed.” He said that restricting political activities and rallies was a decision the Election Commission needed to make.

On Saturday, the Election Commission, which had previously deflected that call by saying political parties wanted the rallies to go forward, gave in to the mounting pressure.

The commission barred all physical rallies and roadshows for one week and said a decision on imposing restrictions throughout the entire campaign will be made after a Jan. 15 review.

S.Y. Quraishi, a former head of the commission, said campaigning could be banned or restricted for the entire period if the commission wanted to do so.

“But they lack the will,” Quraishi said. “What’s the point in banning rallies after the virus has already spread through the entire country?”

John, the virologist, said officials in states with upcoming elections are being inconsistent by imposing curfews and restrictions on everyday gatherings but allowing large election rallies to be held.

“The government has once again sent out a message that politics is more important than health,” he said.