Hezbollah setback seen in Lebanese vote
BEIRUT — Lebanon’s militant Hezbollah group and its allies suffered losses in this weekend’s parliamentary elections, with preliminary results Monday showing some vocal opponents picking up more seats and several traditional partners routed out of the legislature.
The biggest winner appeared to be the nationalist Christian Lebanese Forces party led by Samir Geagea, overtaking the Free Patriotic Movement founded by President Michel Aoun as the largest Christian bloc in Parliament. The Lebanese Forces is a strong critic of Iran-backed Hezbollah and has received funding from Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional foe.
The Free Patriotic Movement, a Hezbollah ally since 2006, suffered a setback, losing several seats.
Meanwhile, independents and newcomers, including those from the 2019 protest movement, scooped up at least 10 seats. That was seen as a major achievement considering they went into the vote fragmented and facing intimidation and threats by entrenched mainstream parties.
Since those parties attained power, however, Lebanon as experienced an economic meltdown that has impoverished the country and triggered the biggest wave of emigration since the 1975-90 civil war.
Despite the apparent setback, Hezbollah and its main Shiite ally, the Amal group of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, are likely to retain the 27 seats allocated to the sect. It was not clear, however, whether the Iran-backed group and its allies would hang on to the majority they have held since 2018, when they grabbed 71 of the 128 seats in parliament.
The preliminary results point to a shift, but more turmoil lies ahead. They portend a sharply polarized parliament divided between pro and anti-Hezbollah lawmakers who will find it difficult to work together to form a new government and pass the laws needed to to enact reforms and begin the country’s financial recovery.
With two main blocs — Hezbollah and the Lebanese Forces — opposed to each other, analysts said the results could be more paralysis.
“Going forward, unless these two groups can reach a modus vivendi on governance, Lebanon will be stuck in a political deadlock with long-term disastrous economic consequences,” said Randa Slim, senior fellow with the Washington-based Middle East Institute.
Prime Minister Najib Mikati, who is hoping to return as head of a post-election government, urged groups and independents who will be represented in the new parliament to move quickly “because what we are passing through cannot withstand [political] bickering at the expense of priorities.”
Mikati was apparently referring to consultations that are expected to begin soon to name a new prime minister whose government’s main mission will be to negotiate with the International Monetary Fund to work on getting Lebanon out of its paralyzing economic crisis. The legislature will have to draft new laws related to the economic crisis, such as a capital controls law.
The new parliament will also elect a new president later this year, after Aoun’s term ends in October.
In a sign of the enormous difficulties lying ahead, the value of the Lebanese pound dropped by 3% on Monday, reaching 28,300 to the U.S. dollar.
The Lebanese currency was pegged at 1,500 pounds to the dollar for 22 years until decades of corruption and mismanagement led to the country’s worst economic crisis in its modern history starting in October 2019.