Retailers not scared of Halloween
$10.6 billion in revenue predicted as ghosts leave lockdown
FAYETTEVILLE — The fortune-tellers are seeing a successful Halloween season in their crystal balls this year, despite the specter of inflation and supply chain snags lurking about.
The National Retail Federation says this year the spooky season sales will see a return to pre-pandemic levels. The group is calling for record revenue of $10.6 billion for 2022, up from $10.1 billion a year ago — the previous record. The retail group conducts a yearly survey through Proper Insights & Analytics.
Planned participation in the Halloween holiday is also up, with 69% of consumers intending to celebrate in some form or fashion, up from 65% last year and close to 68% participation in 2019 before the covid-19 pandemic hit the U.S. This year 67% intend to hand out candy, 51% say they’ll decorate their home or yard, while 47% plan on dressing up in costume and 47% say they’ll carve a pumpkin.
The National Retail Federation said candy sales alone will be $3.1 billion this year. The National Confectioners Association, a trade organization, says it’s expecting a 5% increase in chocolate and candy sales for Halloween 2022.
Halloween participation by young adults — those the 18-24 years-old — declined during the pandemic, from 88% in 2019 to 75% in 2020 and 80% in 2021. This year young adults are expected to be out in force with 87% celebrating.
This is all happening when inflation still is hovering around a 40-year high. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index, prices in the U.S. were up 8.2% in September when compared with the same month a year ago. It came in higher than the 8.1% predicted increase but the rate has declined three months in a row.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for candy and gum are up 13.1% when compared with 2021. The United States Department of Agriculture says the average cost for a pumpkin this year is $5.19, up about 7% from $4.83 cents a year ago.
Raja Kali, economics professor, department chair and holder of the Conoco Phillips Chair in International Economics and Business at the Sam M. Walton College of Business at the University of Arkansas at Fayetteville, said consumers are feeling the pinch of inflation across the board but noted with low unemployment many consumers still are opening their wallets and spending, even if it’s grudgingly.
He said for middle-class consumers, they might cut costs by buying a less expensive costume or skip that extra bag of candy, but as long as they have jobs, they’ll celebrate the holiday as best they can.
Kali said he sees signs of inflation easing slightly — noting the cost of shipping containers for international trade trending downward — and that supply chain snags seem to be ironing themselves out slowly but it’s unclear when it will manifest itself as pricing relief for struggling consumers.
The Retail Federation’s survey indicates folks will spend $100 on average for Halloween items in 2022, including costumes and candy, down slightly from $103 last year. Costumes make up most of that spending, with Halloween lovers expected to spend $2.9 billion on kids’ and adult costumes, the highest level since 2017. Spending on pet costumes this year are expected to reach a record $710 million.
Shopping began early this year with 47% of those surveyed starting to buy for the season in September or earlier.
According to the survey, 47% of shoppers will visit discount stores, with 36% going to specialty Halloween or costume stores and 31% said they plan to shop online.
Specialty Halloween retailer Spirit Halloween has seven stores in Arkansas this year and employs about 200 workers in the state during the season. It’s operating more than 1,450 stores nationally this year, a new record.
In response to emailed questions, the company said it’s dealing with supply chain challenges by staying flexible and that its stores in Arkansas are fully stocked with costumes, animatronics and decorations.
Angela Lemke has operated her Halloween Express in Rogers since 2007. She said she’s seeing strong foottraffic at her store in the Dixieland Mall. She noted supply concerns that were a real issue last season have eased somewhat but there are still problems with high demand items selling out without much hope for restocking. She added hard to find items last year, like animatronics, are more readily available.
The classics are big this year, Lemke said, with costumes for firefighters, police, and heroes like Spider-man in demand.
On the scary side of things, she said interest in masks and items from The Purge movie series are always seasonal favorites and the horror man of the hour this year is Michael Myers from the Halloween film franchise.
“Everything we had with him sold out in the first week,” she said. “I’m trying to get more.