On our minds

Evolving dynamics in Georgia

THE U.S. Senate runoff in Georgia won’t determine control of the upper chamber. Even if Herschel Walker unseats incumbent Raphael Warnock, the Senate will remain split down the middle with Vice President Kamala Harris wielding the tie-breaking vote. The Senate remains blue. If barely.

But the runoff is providing an interesting look into the demographics of a once fervently red state and the lingering Trump impact on the GOP, each evolving.

Former president Barack Obama remains a popular Democratic campaign prop, and will continue to serve as such in Georgia for Senator Warnock. But as for a former president of another political party … . Republican insiders don’t want Donald Trump to campaign for Herschel Walker, the candidate he endorsed in the primaries.

One GOP aide told The Hill, “Hopefully Trump will stay out of the race as much as he possibly can,” and “if you talk to Georgia election strategists, they believe Trump was a huge drag on Walker in suburban Atlanta, and there’s just no reason to risk repeating that.”

A Republican strategist told The Washington Post, “Past evidence is we lose elections recently where Trump gets involved in our state,” adding that it would be a disaster if Mr. Trump campaigned in Georgia.

And despite a falling-out with Trump, who actively campaigned against him, conservative Republican Gov. Brian Kemp won re-election.

Georgia Republicans aren’t happy that Mr. Trump announced his intention to run in 2024 ahead of the Senate runoff. They feel that doing so made the runoff a referendum on him. The only question is if the Peach State GOP actually expected Mr. Trump to defer to Walker’s campaign.

The polls favor Senator Warnock in Georgia, most showing the incumbent with a four-point lead. Georgia Republicans believe they can get the former Heisman Trophy winner over the goal line, though, if only Mr. Trump won’t intercept the pass.

No matter what happens, though, you can expect red-flag challenges to come from the side that finishes second. And maybe even replay reviews. Politics has never been so much like sports. But you have to expect that when a Heisman Trophy winner runs for Senate.