New crewed bomber could be last made
The U.S. Air Force has, to put it mildly, a mixed record building strategic bombers over the past 60 years. The B-1 Lancer was poorly regarded from the start, and canceled by Jimmy Carter before being revived by Ronald Reagan following his 1980 election. The B-2 Spirit, known for its stealthy, fuselage-free profile, was so expensive that Congress and George H.W. Bush agreed to cut the fleet to just 21 aircraft. The spotty performance managing bomber programs helps explain why the Air Force keeps about 70 aging B-52s in service, six decades after that production line shut down.
A new bomber, known as the B-21 Raider, rolled out of its manufacturing plant in California one night earlier this month amid the usual defense-industrial hoopla: Martial music amped up the drama and fog machines did their best to create a spooky blue glow, climaxing in an unveiling worthy of an auto show. The B-21 resembles the B-2 but is a bit smaller, with a lower profile over the wing and a slightly bigger belly under it. Most of its important capabilities remain classified.
The B-21 has already proved that it’s stealthy: The project was researched, developed and engineered in secret; fearing what potential enemies might conclude, Congress voted to keep its budget under wraps. The Dec. 2 rollout was so tightly controlled that Northrop Grumman security teams prowled the press stand to make sure news photographers kept their lenses tightly focused on the plane’s nose. Whether the B-21 is capable of eluding enemy radars, it has already proved that it can avoid public scrutiny.
This bomber isn’t cheap; the B-21 is likely to cost about $700 million per copy and that is before it even flies. The Biden administration wants 100 B-21s; to help pay for them, the service says it will retire the B-1s and B-2s in its fleet. But it would not surprise us if a few years from now, Congress cuts the size of the B-21 fleet — thus raising the aircraft’s price — and a president asks for extra money to keep some of the older bombers around.
The Raider has, by all reports, been a well-managed program, at least compared with other Air Force procurement fiascoes. The aircraft is engineered with a number of proved technologies rather than betting on geewhiz stuff to eventually emerge. An open systems software architecture will allow subsystems from a variety of makers and manufacturers to add new avionics and weapons as the program ages — something the Pentagon’s prime contractors have long avoided. And it is being procured under (what only the Pentagon can call) an accelerated timetable: The B-21 was planned to go from drawing board to flight in a dozen or so years — instead of the more typical 20 years or more.
The B-21 will be built for two missions: to penetrate enemy air defenses and deliver both nuclear and conventional weapons. When it comes to dropping nuclear weapons overseas, there are better ways to do it than with a pilot in a jet plane. The Trident D5 submarine-based missile is a more accurate delivery system than any aircraft. In conventional warfare, bombers can carry diverse payloads and, at least for now, can go farther than conventional cruise missiles, which face growing threats from advanced air defenses. Air Force officials say these factors make the B-21 something the Chinese will need to consider as they flex their muscles in Asia.
Proponents like to note that the B-21 will be the latest in a string of stealth aircraft, and thus will benefit from what the Air Force has learned from decades of operating under cover. Maybe so, but 32 years after the first stealth aircraft saw action in the Gulf War, stealth technology is in its own race against technology. Our enemies might soon be able to employ artificial intelligence to discover where a B-21 is most likely to pierce their air defenses — and then to plug those holes.
We suspect the lifetime price of the B-21 may top $200 billion. Major weapons inevitably cost more than the initial claims, and there is uncertainty about whether the B-21’s stated costs include all the missions the Air Force expects it to perform. And we wonder whether it makes sense to spend tens of billions on a manned bomber at a time when relatively inexpensive missiles sink Russian ships and drones take out Russian armor in Ukraine. An unmanned bomber also means you never have to worry about search and rescue.
For now, the Air Force will only say the B-21 might someday operate without a crew. We urge the service to speed that transition. Our guess is that the B-21 will be the United States’ last manned bomber — and will be operating autonomously sooner than the Air Force is willing to admit.