U.S. budget talks in need of reality check
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said the scary part out loud: His caucus is willing to allow the United States to default on its debt in order to force budget cuts. While he blamed President Biden for dragging his feet in negotiations and said default is “not an option,” Mr. McCarthy (R-Calif.) made it clear this week that House Republicans won’t pass a clean debt-ceiling increase without any conditions attached. That increases the chances of default in a matter of weeks, which would throw markets, the economy and more into chaos.
It is foolish to gamble with the full faith and credit of the U.S. government at any time. It’s madness to do so now, at a fragile moment for the financial system. Have lawmakers learned nothing from the 2011 standoff that resulted in higher borrowing costs and a lower U.S. credit rating? Back then, the two sides got close to the edge and there were hefty costs.
We agree with Mr. McCarthy that the nation needs to have a serious conversation about spending and the growing debt burden. The speaker omits a critical third component: revenue. The Editorial Board has been publishing a series of editorials on how to stabilize the debt over the next decade, which would require about $8 trillion in new savings or revenue. We understand how difficult it is to come up with concrete proposals, because we are doing it. Mr. McCarthy’s rhetoric was not backed up by an actual plan.
It’s not even clear what House Republicans want to cut. During his speech on Wall Street on Monday, Mr. McCarthy said House Republicans want to cap “discretionary spending” at 2022 levels, which would imply putting a lid on both military and nonmilitary spending. That’s very different from many in his caucus who have proposed slashing only nonmilitary spending so the cuts fall solely on education, science, environment and safety-net programs. House Republicans have a habit of making it sound as though the budget can be fixed merely by trimming food stamps, Medicaid and other aid programs. Those numbers don’t add up. And Democrats would never agree to putting only social programs on the chopping block. As a negotiating position, it’s a nonstarter.
To truly address the nation’s fiscal woes, Congress and the White House also have to include common-sense Social Security and Medicare reforms. Both Mr. Biden and Mr. McCarthy agree on keeping them off-limits, which undercuts the seriousness of any effort to put the nation’s fiscal house in order.
Even if all discretionary spending were capped at 2022 levels and limits were placed on how much that spending could grow in the coming years, it would save about $3 trillion, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. That is far from what’s needed to stabilize the debt.
Mr. McCarthy noted that he and Mr. Biden have not spoken at length since February about the debt limit. That lack of serious engagement has to change. A default could come as early as June.
But the negotiations need a reality check. House Republicans have a duty to increase the debt limit to pay for spending that was already approved by both parties in the past. Rather than papering over their differences with modest budget cuts, a better approach would be to lift the debt ceiling now and simultaneously launch negotiations on a sustainable budget solution for the coming years. Does Mr. McCarthy want to be remembered for political posturing or lasting change? Surely, no leader wants to go down in history for triggering the first U.S. default.