Trade deadline nears; Cards must sell
Holy toasted ravioli, the St. Louis Cardinals are firing on all cylinders, drilling homers, driving in runs and dripping with confidence.
Still gotta sell.
Yes, entering Thursday’s game with the rival Cubs, the Cardinals have won five consecutive games, eight of their past 10 and just swept the above-.500 Marlins.
But that’s how much of a hole they’re in — the Cardinals remain nearly double-digit games out of first place.
So, you can credit Oliver Marmol’s club for making things interesting. But it also should be frustrating to fans — and to the organization itself — that the Cardinals, apparently, have this in them.
Where was this when the season was still a season?
Of course, much of this comes back to pitching — the pitching they haven’t consistently had, the pitching they’re suddenly getting … and the pitching they’ll try to acquire at the deadline (even if it’s in a trade for, yes, pitching).
It’s quite possible, for instance, that a top Class AAA pitcher from another organization could be a Cardinals starter in 2024.
If the Cardinals trade Jordan Hicks and Jordan Montgomery, one would think it would get them something enticing. Hicks is clicking. And Montgomery, goodness, sits seventh in the National League with a 3.14 ERA. That’s the same ERA as Zac Gallen, the Arizona starter (and former Cardinals prospect) who started the 2023 AllStar Game. And the Cards, if they play their cards right, could lure a wide-eyed buyer to give up some top talent for Jack Flaherty. But let’s take at least a moment to discuss a curveball regarding this pitcher.
What if the Cardinals didn’t trade Flaherty and, instead, tendered him a qualifying offer?
Last offseason’s qualifying offer was one year at $19.65 million. Perhaps this offseason it flirts with $20 million.
If Jack turned it down to become a free agent, the Cards would receive a compensatory draft pick. If Jack agreed to a qualifying offer, he’d be a Cardinal for 2024. And for a guy with an up-and-down past, and who makes $5.4 million this season, that would be a heck of a pay bump to come back to and pitch from Busch’s bump. He could then go into free agency at age 29, still relatively young.
But first, would the Cardinals even agree to this QO? Yes, they need to fill their rotation — Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz are the only marquee-name St. Louis starters under contract. And Flaherty has fared pretty well of late (5-1 and a 3.22 ERA in the past 11 starts, though that included two six-spots). But is he worth the possible $20 million for one year?
These questions and decisions make up the latest type of pressure on the Cardinals’ front office. This past offseason, it was all about building a club that could make a playoff run. Now, it’s about building the right rotation that can lead a team to the 2024 playoffs — and then, yes, on a playoff run.
The Cards’ front office has a meticulous player evaluation process. The execs will determine the worth and the value of trading Flaherty compared to keeping him with the qualifying offer — or getting the draft pick. In the coming days and weeks (the trade deadline is Aug. 1), the Cardinals will find out just what they can get for all their guys.
The thing the Cardinals must do — the game they cannot lose, so to speak — is a bidding war for the top free-agent pitcher they desire most. Could be Aaron Nola, could be Lucas Giolito, perhaps even Blake Snell. But this is the offseason they need to out-spend and out-woo opponents. In the short term, it’s all about maximizing this trade deadline. And unless eight of 10 wins turn into 18 of 20, the Cards are set up to be sellers.
No, they’re not going to trade Paul Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado or Jordan Walker. But they have plenty of pieces to move. And they should nab at least one 2024 starter — even if it’s a rising star yet to start in the bigs — at the 2023 trade deadline.
As for the recent play, well, the Cardinals look like the club that many picked to win the NL Central. Everything stems from starting pitching. Quality starts mean less stress on the bullpen — and make for a stronger, rested bullpen to lock down the holds and saves for a win. Pitching has been the problem.
And now, trading pitching can be part of the solution.
I say don’t make the qualifying offers. Trade both Flaherty and Montgomery and capitalize on this rare chance to be sellers.