Breaking the stalemate
In a recent interview with The Economist, Ukraine’s top general Valery Zaluzhny said what is evident on the battlefield: Ukraine is at a stalemate with Russia and “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.” The statement should trigger a renewed effort to kick-start Ukraine’s battle against Russia’s invasion, with help from the United States and European allies.
Ukraine and Russia, he said, have reached a “stupor,” fighting in trenches as in World War I, neither able to gain on the other. “The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new.” He said Ukraine needs a technological leap, calling for new air power, electronic warfare and counter-battery capability, and mine-breaching technology.
All is not lost militarily. Ukraine has opened a corridor for shipping grain, pushing back Russian naval forces with missile and drone strikes. In ground combat, Ukrainian forces have exacted an enormous toll on Russian armor and personnel. In battles for the town of Avdiivka last month, Russian casualties hit 900 on one day.
Still, there is a sense the war has stalled. The steady but deliberate pace of Western arms deliveries has frustrated Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Congress can boost Ukrainian morale and military performance by passing a large economic and military aid package in the coming weeks, sufficient to avoid stop-start disruptions in the year ahead. Despite the reluctance of some House Republicans, there remains a sizable majority in both chambers for such a package.
The United States and its allies should also work to frustrate the Kremlin’s growing circumvention of the cap of $60 per barrel on Russian oil exports. The cap allows Western companies to ship, trade or insure Russian oil only if sold at or below the cap, or else face penalties. Russian oil companies and traders have built a shadow fleet of tankers to bypass the cap, and its biggest customers, China and India, don’t honor the cap. Overall, Russian oil revenue rose by more than a quarter in October compared with the same month last year. The revenue will help Russia support the war effort. The West should continue to press sanctions on those who facilitate the shadow fleet.
In the end, Ukraine may face the reality that it needs to negotiate with a Russian foe willing to endlessly sacrifice treasure and lives on the battlefield. That point has not been reached, but the West should give Ukraine the leverage to drive the best possible bargain if the time comes.