Asa betting on long shot

Asa Hutchinson told the Sunday episode of “Capitol View” on television station KARK- TV that an Iowa farmer had said to him that he was entirely too normal for the Republican presidential race.

I would have agreed with that until lately. But now Asa has taken to talking like he’s still a viable candidate.

Asa had a perfectly fine plan to stay in the race until Thanksgiving and see how he was doing in polling. He now has 10 days to get higher than 0.6 percent in the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, unless he thinks 0.6 is good.

I had posted late last week on social media that he had said he’d get out of the race by the end of November if he wasn’t polling at 4 percent in an early state, presumably Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Nevada. I had said he’d be home soon.

He corrected me. He said he had said he would “re-evaluate” by Thanksgiving.

I don’t wish to quibble. He knows what he said, and I’m not out there on the trail hearing what he says. All I had to go on was the public statement he issued in September after he got booted from the second debate on account of not being a serious-enough candidate.

Here was that statement: “My goal is to increase my polling numbers to 4 percent in an early state before Thanksgiving. If that goal is met, then I remain in contention for either Caucus Day or Primary Day.”

Nowhere in that statement, I acknowledge, is a vow to get out if he doesn’t make 4 percent. He simply says he’ll stay in if he reaches that goal, which he won’t.

Departure might be implied. But it might come down to what the meaning of “in contention” is.

Tim Scott dropped out Sunday night. He was at 6.7 percent in Iowa and 4.3 in New Hampshire. He said he wasn’t connecting.

What does that make 0.6? Scott might have been unwilling to proceed to his home state of South Carolina and lose to Nikki Haley. Asa just filed in Arkansas, where Donald Trump will destroy him.

To begin, what was a candidate for president doing Sunday on an Arkansas political talk show? A fine one, sure, but, still, he’s known in Arkansas.

He recorded the interview on Friday. He was here to gamble his scant resources on a filing fee for Arkansas’ participation with 15 other states in the Super Tuesday primary March 5. He said you can’t very well get any votes unless you’re on the ballot.

Long-shot betting is a thing. I’ve done it at Oaklawn. What you do is put $10 on a horse with massive odds against it. Then you watch that horse come in several seconds behind the field covered in everyone else’s dirt.

You could say I might as well have burned that $10 bill. But setting it on fire would have taken it out of the economy. It’s better just to give it to the needy, such as the Cella family.

Let us consider Hutchinson’s explanation for an apparent plan now to hang around with an eye toward March. I’ll put it in my words with a little roll of the eyes.

Former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu told him that voters there don’t really start thinking about how they’ll vote until after Thanksgiving. So, maybe they’ll start thinking about Asa, though they won’t see him in debates or in media advertising that he can’t afford.

But it’s a small state that famously puts a premium on retail campaigning. And the race is going to change if Donald Trump gets convicted on any of these indictments. Asa needs to be there when/if that happens, at which point he can say he told everyone so while candidates like Ron DeSantis and Haley were trying to tiptoe around the subject.

There are two problems with that. One is that Trump’s first trial is scheduled to begin March 4; there won’t be any conviction by Super Tuesday the next day. The other is that it might be better to be sitting in a credible second or third place—like DeSantis and Haley—if Trump plunges, rather than being someone who hasn’t established any independent credibility.

Asa needs to show something in Iowa or New Hampshire, or at least by South Carolina, to be able to pounce if Trump fades from a criminal conviction. He doesn’t need compliments on his distinguishing Republican characteristic of normalcy. He needs votes.

I dread his active participation in the Arkansas primary on Super Tuesday. He is a fine and admirable man who has shown bravery going before Trumpian audiences to shout truth over the boos.

He was an effective eight-year governor of Arkansas. His legacy need not be in the image of a slow horse crossing the finish line long after the rest with Trump’s dirt all over him.