Moon shadow

Will it sell in Peoria?

Love him or hate him, there’s no doubt Elon Musk is brilliant. He’s right most of the time, but not always. He’s been successful at launching rockets towards the moon, but has cratered advertising revenue on X, formerly Twitter.

Tesla has been successful, but it may have missed the mark with its new Cybertruck, to be unveiled at a release party on Nov. 30 in Austin, Texas.

We described the Cybertruck in July as a “scientific moon vehicle.” It boasts a more than 300-mile range and was—was—priced at $49,900, competitive with the average price for America’s best-selling pickup, the Ford F-150 in 2019.

That low price surprised observers as much as the Cybertruck itself. But the price has changed. It’s unknown what it will be, and the website doesn’t give any hints.

Mr. Musk has repeatedly warned of cost and manufacturing challenges, and if his goal is to compete with the F-150, consumers should expect a price tag of around $60,000, despite a 12 percent reduction in battery costs and a 5 percent reduction of the price of the company’s Model 3 sedan. Musk is not optimistic about its future.

“We dug our own graves with Cybertruck,” Musk told analysts, referring to how difficult it would be to produce high volumes.

Here’s the problem with electric-powered pickups in general: Most these days are not your grandfather’s bare bones truck prized for utility on the farm or ranch. They are faster, more stable on the open road, and have all the bells and whistles of a nice SUV, with a flatbed in the back.

Many people who might buy a Cybertruck are looking for a vehicle for utility, at least at this time of year, in carrying duck decoys or towing boats, four-wheelers, or pulling something bigger.

Electric pickups in general are not ideal for that. Even without towing, vehicle range is always the issue for electric vehicles, and the challenge is compounded for electric pickups. Hook a boat to the trailer hitch and vehicle range can be reduced by half, depending on the weight. Therefore the angst of having to find an EV charging station is re-introduced and multiplied.

A good rule of thumb for comparing pickups is vehicle cost per mile of range. If this moon mobile has 300 miles of range and is competitively priced with, say, a Ford F-150, which has a gasoline range of roughly 550 miles before either uses the trailer hitch, it may be priced out of and performed out of the market it intends to penetrate.

“This is going to be the toughest vehicle for Tesla to launch,” said Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds. “It’s going to sell really well initially because it does really resonate with some buyers, but not the mass market.”

Tesla has a mass market capability to build 250,000 Cybertrucks annually. That’s more than 10 times the early annual sales of the Rivian R1T and Ford F-150 Lightning.

Phillippe Honchos of Jefferies says, “However unlikely … canceling Cybertruck would probably be positive.” He cut his target price for Tesla shares recently in a report criticizing Tesla’s departure from its competitive edge: simplicity, scale and speed.

Musk may have driven this Tesla model into a moon crater.