Big Orange, Geriatric Joe

In the nexus connecting energy, environment, economics and politics, the leadership of both Joe Biden and Donald Trump is— surprise, surprise—lacking. As such, until further notice they will affectionately be referred to in this space as Big Orange and Geriatric Joe.

First, Big Orange. Recently, because of his penchant for praising dictators while antagonizing long-held U.S. allies, Fox News asked Big Orange if he wants to be a dictator. His response was something along the lines of: only on Day One.

Further, he would use that 24-hour dictatorship to “build the wall” (really?) and open up America to “drill, drill, drill.”

Because I spent more than 25 years in the energy industry—the last 10 in oil and gas—to the extent that energy is written about in this space, I’ll maintain that the only thing holding America back from drilling is the profitability of individual oil and gas wells.

Out of about 900 drilling rigs available for lease in the U.S., (according to Baker Hughes) as this is being written, 621 are currently in operation. When the price of oil increases, so does the rig count. And vice versa. And at $75 per barrel for oil and an equivalent low value for natural gas, oil companies are more selective in where they invest in drilling programs.

It’s not reasonable to expect a man who in the past 10 days has confused Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi and Marjorie Taylor Greene with Stormy Daniels to know this kind of inside-baseball information. But given Big Orange’s history, if he’s the smartest guy in the room as he routinely points out, if he does know it, we shouldn’t expect him to be truthful about it.

(Quick aside, in the history of the world, the actual smartest guy in the room never feels the need to announce his IQ. Similar to the Alpha Male nonsense, chances are about 100 percent that anyone who announces he’s an alpha male is not one.)

Now to Geriatric Joe, who proudly announced a delay in permitting for proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals. The news hit the ears of environmental activists everywhere with much delight. This is odd because natural gas was once the golden child of the environmental community.

Be that as it may, activist Bill McKibben excitedly hailed the decision as “brave,” because the industry would turn against his re-election bid.

I’m not the smartest guy in the room either, but in case McKibben and others missed the memo, the industry is already against Geriatric Joe, and no amount of pandering will bring them on board. So what’s a red-blooded politician to do but pander to those who will?

It’s too much to call it cowardly, but bravery is simply a bridge too far. This action doesn’t exactly meet the requirements to be written about as a profile in courage.

It’s also a pander to a younger generation angry about the pro-Israeli stance taken by the U.S. regarding the conflict in the Middle East. I’ll be the first to admit I don’t fully understand this, but it’s highly likely that those who oppose the U.S. position on the matter don’t, either. Here’s the deal:

Between about 2008 and 2010, major technological advancements were made in the energy industry’s ability to produce natural gas. It led to so much production that the price dropped through the floor. As a result, LNG import terminals were re-engineered to become export terminals. Put simply, we can produce more than we need, so we export the surplus.

It was seen as a win-win situation because at that time, the environmental community saw natural gas as a path to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Power generators that could switched from coal to gas without doing much more than making good financial decisions, and America’s carbon emissions dropped to 1990 levels, which is exactly what was prescribed in the Kyoto Protocol.

However, in many observers’ opinions, because it didn’t punish anyone, it was not good enough.

The lack of pain involved created the need for a new villain, so it suddenly came to light that methane emissions contribute more to climate change than carbon emissions on a pound-for-pound basis (sorry, inside baseball), and natural gas fell from grace.

I’m not about to question science, but it’s nearly impossible to believe the scientific community just figured out that methane contributes more to climate change than carbon.

It’s far more likely that environmentalists have used their megaphone to bring this to the attention of the public. But at a minimum, in much the same way that Big Orange hasn’t been up front about the reality of drilling in America, it’s suspect.

One thing we know for certain is that large-scale amounts of natural gas have been produced in this country for the past 15 years, which is impossible without drilling. That drilling and production continues because very little has changed in the way of regulations, most of which occurs at the state level in our neighbors Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana, who care not what the White House has to say on the matter.

Is this about politics? You bet. It’s an election year. But you still need to know the truth. And chances are, you’ll learn it here before you’ll learn it from either Big Orange or Geriatric Joe.