U.S. eclipse viewers face possibility of cloud cover
Meteorologist says don’t be too pessimistic
On April 8, a total solar eclipse will be visible across North America and leave 31.5 million people in temporary darkness when the moon passes between the sun and Earth and casts its shadow on our planet. But depending on where viewers are, there may be clear skies or a greater chance of clouds blocking this event of a lifetime.
Cloud cover could affect one’s view of the eclipse in different ways. Thin cloud cover allows a view of the disk of the moon, but could limit the visibility of prominences coming off the sun’scorona, the outermost part of the sun’s atmosphere. With thick cloud cover, an eclipse-viewer would still experience the darkening of daylight but would miss features of this year’s particularly active sun.
Drawing conclusions about what historical cloud cover will mean for a particular location is even more problematic than doing the same for temperature or precipitation. Cloud fraction, a measure used to convey how often an area has been covered in clouds using satellite imagery, does not provide information about whether the clouds were dense or thin, scattered or broken, or whether the cloud cover lasted all day or burned off with the afternoon sun.
“The climatology of cloud cover is very imprecise. Temperature, precipitation and wind gusts are much easier to record historically,” said Don Paul, former chief meteorologist at WIVB and a regular contributor to the Buffalo News.
Buffalo, N.Y., along the path of totality, has a higher chance of being cloudy, but that doesn’t mean it is a bad spot for a view of the total solar eclipse. According to Paul, the amount of cloud cover and the opacity of the clouds will be the big factors.
“Climatology for April is a bit easier to forecast, because there is more mixing in the atmosphere and the clearing of dense stratus clouds might be better than in, say, February,” Paul said. “Last April 8, Buffalo had an ideal clear sky. In general, sunshine does begin to increase as April begins in the Great Lakes.”
Texas has a higher chance of being cloud-free, but springtime is severe-weather season for the state.
“Thunderstorms tend to develop in western Texas along the dry line and move eastward from there. Low-level clouds come from the Gulf [of Mexico], moving south to north,” said John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas state climatologist and regents professor at Texas A&M University. “The worst-case scenario is a cold front comes through, with a solid layer of low clouds.”
The eclipse will pass over Texas in the early afternoon and, luckily, thunderstorms often don’t develop until the late afternoon and evening. April, however, is also the beginning of tornado season in the state, which could cause safety concerns for those outside.
The eclipse date will also be peak time for early-season wildflowers in Texas, Nielsen-Gammon added — in case clouds block eclipse plans.
It is important to remember that this is not a forecast. Weather systems can change and shift due to a number of factors, and just because an area generally has cloudy conditions in April does not necessarily mean you will be out of luck if you are in New England on April 8. “Don’t be too pessimistic!” Paul said.
Total solar eclipses don’t happen every year, and the next one viewable in the Lower 48 states won’t occur until 2044, so it’s advised to go outside and hope for clear skies.