Just begun to fight?
Ukraine has finally started hitting Russia where it hurts. In what probably should have happened months ago, the Associated Press reported this week that Ukrainian long-range drones successfully attacked not one but two oil facilities in Russia, evidence of Ukraine’s heightened technological capacity as the war extends into its third year.
Last year Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy boasted that his country had developed a weapon that would hit a target 400 miles away. Apparently he wasn’t bluffing.
On Tuesday, a Ukrainian drone struck and set fire to an oil refinery in the Nizhny Novgorod region, according to regional governor Gleb Nikitin. The region is located 480 miles from the Ukraine border.
On the same day, another drone hit an oil depot in Oryol, 95 miles from Ukraine.
Unless Ukraine lacked the technology and know-how to strike targets from these ranges, it’s a wonder why this is just happening now. Russia’s revenue (and Putin’s personal wealth from skimming off the top of that revenue) largely depends on oil.
According to Reuters, “for 2023 as a whole, the Russian government had budgeted for federal revenue of 8.939 trillion roubles from oil and gas sales, or more than 34 percent of total budget revenue, down from 11.856 trillion roubles in 2022, when oil prices were higher.”
Unlike Ukraine, which has been able to remain in the fight against Russia’s unprovoked attempt at a land grab, Russia should not be able to rely on aid from other countries with the possible exception of Red China, which is experiencing its own economic woes. Russia is usually seen as the deep pocket that is a major funder for other countries seeking to wreak havoc in the world order.
Kyiv has also staged increasingly bold attacks behind the 930-mile front line running through eastern and southern Ukraine, including increasing deployment of sea drones in the Black Sea, where it claims to have sunk Russian warships.
In a time of war, it’s difficult to know with certainty what is fact and what is propaganda, but Mr. Zelenskyy said that recent Russian advances have been halted and the battlefield situation is now significantly better than in the past three months.
Understanding the probable ramifications on the global price of oil, for the sake of Ukraine and the rest of the world, President Zelenskyy would do well to take the offensive. Maybe that will awaken members of our Congress that Ukraine still has a chance.