Faulty reasoning

A ‘thank you’ would be nice

Vladimir Putin didn’t offer his thanks when the American spooks found out that terrorists were likely to strike inside Russia last week—then told their Russian counterparts to beware.

It’s something called “duty to warn,” and the good guys—that is, the Americans—have it as SOP: When our spies get information on terrorism plots, even against those countries that might consider us adversaries, our side warns the intended victim.

The American undercover types did exactly that, two weeks before terrorists shot up a concert outside Moscow, killing nearly 150 people.

The CIA’s local station in Moscow delivered a private message to the Russians: An offshoot of the Islamic State is planning something; increase security.

The very next day, the U.S. embassy in Moscow put out what The New York Times called “a rare public alert” about an extremist attack “at a Russian concert venue.”

This should have been enough to keep the local cops on overtime. Especially at concert venues. And make people in Russia more careful. And get the Russian spooks asking more questions.

Vladimir Vladimirovich ignored the warnings, calling them “outright blackmail” and suggested it was all an attempt by the Americans to “intimidate and destabilize our society.”

Then the attack hit. And instead of the president of Russia apologizing to his people and maybe even thanking the Americans for their help, and pledging to take warnings more seriously in the future, Comrade Putin’s administration decided to . . . blame the Americans.

According to a story in The Wall Street Journal this week, the head of Russia’s Federal Security Service told Russian state television that Western security types were involved in the terrorism attack: “Islamists couldn’t prepare such an action alone,” he suggested.

Oh, we disagree. This time they just shot up the place and maybe detonated some incendiary devices. That’s pretty low-tech, especially considering that terrorists once learned to fly, if not land, airplanes for an attack on this country.

According to The Journal: “This week’s cover of Russia’s biggest weekly newspaper shows portraits of Western leaders engulfed in flames with the headline: ‘We know the architects of the Crocus terrorist act. We hope they burn in hell.’

“Putin acknowledged Monday that the attack was carried out by Islamist radicals, but hinted that Kyiv and its U.S. backers were involved and linked the attack to armed raids into Russia by Kyiv-backed commandos and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.”

Last week, the Russians said they were “probing reports” that the United States was financing terrorist operations in Russia.

Because this couldn’t possibly be a complete failure by Russian security forces, right? This couldn’t possibly be the result of a smug and overly self-assured Russian president who shrugged off friendly warnings of decidedly unfriendly plans, right? This couldn’t have been the result of distrust throughout the Russian government, with too much focus on cracking down on political activism at home and not enough on following bad guys closing in on concert venues.

Right?

Besides, it’s easier to blame the Americans than apologize for a massive failure. Vlad the Impaler doesn’t do apologies as well as he does harangues.

The Times reports that as President Putin has cracked down on folks at home, his security forces have had to spread out and keep tabs on all kinds of subversives: Like opposition figures. (Those who are still alive.) And the LGBTQ community. And Jehovah’s Witnesses. And those who’d dare march in peace protests.

“Security experts said the expanding focus wasted resources and diverted the attention of senior leaders.” Ya think?

Also via The Times: “Experts said Russia’s intelligence services have traditionally been focused on domestic terrorist threats emanating from separatist and religious extremist groups in Russia’s North Caucasus region. Large terrorist attacks on Russian soil attributed to international groups like the Islamic State or Al Qaeda have been rare, and the country’s domestic security services have less experience tracking those threats and are less skilled at penetrating Central Asian extremist cells.

“In the days since the attack, Moscow has returned the favor to Washington for offering the tip by claiming its warning should be treated as evidence of possible American complicity.” Well then.

One could assume that the United States might never get that thank-you. Not from this regime.

But we’d bet the next warning will be taken more seriously. Or at least the Russian people should hope.