ACES ON BRIDGE
Take the South cards for this deal from the qualification phase of the 2023 World Transnationals.
Your strong no-trump opening buys the pot, and you receive a second-and-fourth spade-three lead. Whether you should insert the eight or the jack from dummy is unclear, but since many West players would lead the 10 from an honor10-nine sequence, you call for the jack, East covering with the queen. What is the plan?
Your chances are poor unless clubs are splitting. Even then, you will need the heart king to be onside (lest the defenders take two hearts, three spades and two diamonds), so you could make a case for relying on the heart finesse. Running dummy’s long suit first also has the advantage of forcing some discards from the defenders.
However, the trouble is that you would have to find two discards from your hand, to be followed by two more pitches on the spades. You could afford two hearts and a diamond, but the last black-suit winner might squeeze you between the reds.
You can force a seventh trick in diamonds and should start doing so immediately while you still have safe discards on the spades and communication in clubs. East wins with the diamond king, and the defense can then cash three spades as you discard once from each red suit. If they now shift to hearts, you will put up the king. Assuming that holds, you cash out. If instead you receive passive defense, you can force out the diamond ace for your contract.
ANSWER: With a minimum and no ruffing value, this is not enough for an invitational three spades. Make do with a constructive raise to two. If you play methods such as Bergen Raises, you could show a mixed raise (a hand with four trumps, less than a limit raise but better than a preempt). However, this is not part of standard bidding.
Opening Lead: Spade three “I’ve seen the future, brother; it is murder.”
— Leonard Cohen