PLAYING THE ODDS

You Should Be Using Player Props as a Tool for Your Fantasy Drafts

Don’t forget to check in with the sportsbooks before heading into your fantasy draft.

That’s right; the oddsmakers can often help give a hint about which players will be values in your upcoming draft, as well as which players may be good first-round picks. All you have to do is check the futures.

A futures bet is exactly what it sounds like: a bet on a future outcome. Each preseason, sportsbooks offer an extensive menu of futures bets. These markets often are highly accurate; after all, a sportsbook is a business and needs to make money. So, if you aren’t sure about a player’s value, it’s a good idea to see what the sportsbook is betting on — or hopes you are betting on — for the upcoming season.

Let’s take, for example, what the sportsbooks offered last season for the Miami Dolphins receivers.

When this was posted, I remember thinking: Can Tua Tagavailoa support two top-10 receivers? We knew the chemistry he had with Jaylen Waddle from the previous season, but would that disappear now that Tyreek Hill was in town? And as to Hill: Could he be successful without Patrick Mahomes?

As it turns out, both receivers were highly successful and actually exceeded most of these player props. The critical takeaway is that sportsbooks thought they could both be 1,000-yard receivers, but that Hill would be the alpha. They would both be valuable in drafts. I was doubtful they could put up big numbers, but the oddsmakers were right — the yards didn’t favor one receiver significantly. Both players paid off handsomely for their draft-day value, and there was no need to worry about Waddle being completely overshadowed.

Let’s go position-by-position and look at ways to help determine fantasy value based on markets at the sportsbook.

QUARTERBACKS

When looking at draft options, check each player’s passing yards, touchdowns, and rushing yards futures markets.

Did you wonder if Josh Allen would continue to run? Sportsbooks offered rushing props for Allen of 500.5 rushing yards and 6.5 rushing TDs. He finished the season with 762 rushing yards and seven rushing TDs and was the fantasy QB2 for the season. These markets are especially important if you play in a league that awards six points for rushing TDs and only four for passing TDs.

Patrick Mahomes was the QB1 for the season, and he finished with an incredible 5,250 yards and 41 passing TDs. Oddsmakers seemed to agree that losing Tyreek Hill wouldn’t affect his stats, as they set his passing yards prop all the way up at 4,650.5 yards and his TD prop at 34.5.

MVP futures (right) are also a good clue. Mahomes leads the field to take home MVP again in 2023.

RUNNING BACKS

Both TD props and rushing yards props are essential to look at when considering a running back. Not only do you want a lot of yards on the ground, but you also want a lot of goal-line carries.

Elliott finished with 876 yards and 12 TDs. I could tell from this prop that oddsmakers expected the load to be divided more with Tony Pollard last season, but that Zeke would remain the goal-line back. That turned out to be accurate, and he remained a decent value in standard leagues.

Here are Ezekiel Elliott’s futures props from last year:

Rushing yards 875.5 | Rushing TDs 8.5

Consider also checking in on futures markets for who will lead the league in rushing yards, as well as where players are valued in the Offensive Player of the Year markets.

WIDE RECEIVERS/TIGHT ENDS

Consider props for receptions, receiving yards, and TDs. In PPR leagues, last year’s WR1, Justin Jefferson, finished with the most catches (128) and the most receiving yards (1,809). By contrast, Chris Godwin finished the season with only 1,023 yards (20th). However, Godwin had 104 catches, making him the fantasy WR6 in PPR leagues. With wideouts, you’ll also want to check in on who has markets to lead the league in receiving yards and where players are valued for Offensive Player of the Year.

TAKEAWAYS

Oddsmakers certainly don’t get it right all the time, and of course, injuries can ruin a player’s results faster than any snap share or target share change, but sportsbooks are still an excellent guide for finding value. They’ve been doing this a long time, so why not lean on the experts for draft-day tips?