Athlon Sports Fantasy Football
NFL MVP ODDS
Patrick Mahomes is entering his seventh NFL season and he already has been named NFL MVP twice. Can he make it a third in 2023? The oddsmakers list him an early favorite in a crowded field of young quarterbacks.
Mahomes would join an exclusive club. Only seven players in NFL history have won three or more MVP awards: Peyton Manning (five), Aaron Rodgers (four) and Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Johnny Unitas, Jim Brown and Otto Graham (three apiece).
The odds certainly are in his favor. Now more than ever, the MVP has become a quarterback’s award to lose. In fact, a passer has won it in 10 consecutive seasons, with Rodgers winning the honor three times during that stretch.
The last time a non-quarterback won the award was running back Adrian Peterson during his 2,097-yard campaign in 2012. The last defensive player to be named MVP? Lawrence Taylor way back in 1986. And it’s no surprise that defensive players are missing among this season’s top betting favorites.
The AFC, which is loaded with quarterback talent, boasts four of the top five candidates for the award, according to SI Sportsbook. The odds as of press time are listed in the chart below.
Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Mahomes share +700 odds to take home the honor this season. Allen and Burrow finished third and fourth, respectively, in the 2022 MVP voting, with Mahomes winning it after passing for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns. Burrow and Allen, both of whom had 35 touchdowns in the 2022 season, have the weapons and experience to compete again with Mahomes this season.
The Chargers’ Justin Herbert (+1000) only looks better after the NFL Draft landed him another playmaker in TCU’s Quentin Johnson, but it’s interesting that he has better early odds than Jalen Hurts.
Hurts (+1200) finished second in
MVP voting in 2022, and his passer rating
(101.5) was fifth best in the league among starters with more than nine games played. Mahomes ranked third (105.2) and Burrow ranked sixth (100.8). The Eagles quarterback passed for 3,701yards last season with 22 passing touchdowns. But what’s more impressive is what he did on the ground. Hurts led all NFL quarterbacks with a whopping 13 rushing scores. The only player with more was running back Jamaal Williams (17). Austin Ekeler and Derrick Henry also rushed for 13 touchdowns, but Ekeler and Henry both played more games than Hurts, who missed two starts last season due to a sprained sternoclavicular
(SC) joint.
Trevor Lawrence, Rodgers,
Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson and Tua Tagovailoa share +1600 odds for MVP. Of these players, only Jackson and Rodgers have taken home the honor before. Rodgers will be looking for a record-tying fifth award, but this time with the Jets. It would be foolish to count him out.
The first non-quarterback listed on the MVP odds is Justin Jefferson, who sits tied for 25th with odds of +6600. The Vikings wide receiver was named the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
Only two rookies, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, made the list of potential MVP candidates. The No. 1 and No. 2 overall picks this year check in with odds of +15000. No rookie has won the award since Hall of Fame legend Brown accomplished the feat in 1957.