OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR ODDS

We now have a clearer look at how rosters and depth charts will look as we get closer to the start of training camps. So it’s time to take a look at some of the more popular future award player props for the upcoming season, including the favorites for the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year honor.

Last season, Justin Jefferson took home the crown after his 128-catch, 1,809-yard, eight-touchdown campaign with the Minnesota Vikings. He became the third wideout to win the award in the past five years, as Cooper Kupp (2021) and Michael Thomas (2019) won it in previous seasons. That leads me to my first trend pertaining to the Offensive Player of the Year Award winners, and it has to do with wideouts.

Since the dawn of the award in 1972, only one other receiver has won the award besides Jefferson, Kupp and Thomas. Unsurprisingly, that’s Jerry Rice. He did it twice, in 1987 and 1993. So, even though three wide receivers have won the award in the past four years, just 10 percent of the overall winners have played the wideout position.

We’ve also never seen a receiver win the award in back-toback seasons, which is no bombshell since so few have ever won it. If you still prefer Jefferson, the co-favorite to win the award again, keep this fact in mind: There are just two players who have won it in back-to-back-seasons (both running backs, and they both won it three years in a row): Hall of Famers Earl Campbell (1978-1980) and Marshall Faulk (1999-2001).

Historically, quarterbacks (40 percent) and running backs (52 percent) have been the most likely skill positions to win the award. But as the NFL shifts more and more to a passing league, it’s the wide receivers who have been the honorees. This year’s odds mirror that, as Jefferson (+1000) and Ja’Marr Chase (+1000) are among the three players favored to win in 2023.

What’s more, seven of the 11 players at +2000 or better odds to win are receivers. The top running backs are Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry. If you’re looking for some options with more attractive plus-money totals, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow are at +2500. Mahomes won the award in 2018 and is the lone quarterback winner in the past last six years.

If the recent wide receiver trend continues, you might want to consider A.J. Brown or CeeDee Lamb, who at +5000 have the same odds as Christian Watson and Terry McLaurin. If you’re thinking of going with a rookie, such as Bijan Robinson (who is the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year), you might want to think again. Just one first-year player has even won the OPOTY award (Campbell, 1978).

Tight ends have never won the award, not even the greats like Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe or Travis Kelce, so don’t expect a winner from that position.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON