OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR ODDS

It’s time for fans of futures to start looking at which players are most likely to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. First, let’s take a walk down memory lane and see which first-year stars have earned the award in the past 10 years to discern a few trends that can help us make a better wager.

During that time frame, three quarterbacks have earned the honor: Justin Herbert (2020), Kyler Murray (2019) and Dak Prescott (2016). Running backs have won the award four times — Saquon Barkley (2018), Alvin Kamara (2017), Todd Gurley (2015) and Eddie Lacy (2013).

The remaining trio are wideouts: Garrett Wilson (2022), Ja’Marr Chase (2021) and Odell Beckham Jr. (2014).

Each of the past five winners was drafted in the first round, so wagerers should take that into consideration. Overall, seven of the past 10 were Round 1 selections. The lone exceptions are Prescott (Round 4), Kamara (Round 3) and Lacy (Round 2).

Unlike the NFL MVP award in recent years, this award isn’t dominated by quarterbacks — wideouts have won it in both of the past two seasons. Since 2000, running backs have earned the honor nine times. And the favorite for 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year is Falcons running back Bijan Robinson, who comes in at +300 over at SI Sportsbook. That’s no surprise, as he’s been described as the most talented running back to come out of college since Barkley. He was also a first-rounder, so he checks all the boxes. both Adam Thielen and Irv Smith Jr. no longer on the roster.

The downside? Well, there has never been a three-year run in the league’s history where a wideout has won the award. Before Wilson and Chase did it, Louis Lipps and Eddie Brown were the only other receivers to win the award in backto-back years (1984-85). Also, no tight end has ever won the award, so wagering on Dalton Kincaid (+4000) or Michael Mayer (+5000) is like flushing your hard-earned money down the toilet.

Like running backs, quarterbacks also have won the award nine times since 2000. I don’t like any of the top three field generals to make it 10 winners since the turn of the century, but Bryce Young (+450), C.J. Stroud (+700) and Anthony Richardson (+750) rank second, third and fourth, respectively, in terms of the best overall odds to win the award.