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Dan Campbell Is the Oddsmakers’ Pick to Win Coach of the Year

The past 10 NFL Coach of the Year winners have either led their team to the top seed in their conference or put an end to a multiyear playoff drought.

First-year coaches have earned the honor in four of the past six seasons, such as Brian Daboll in 2022 and Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Since 2000, three coaches have won it more than once: Bill Belichick earned it three times (2003, ‘07 and ‘10), while Ron Rivera (2013, ‘15) and Bruce Arians (2012, ‘14) were honored twice. Arians did it with two different franchises (Indianapolis, Arizona).

Quite simply, the biggest requirement for the award is appreciable year-over-year improvement. New York more than doubled its win total from four to nine with Daboll at the helm last season. In John Harbaugh’s case in 2019, the Ravens jumped from 10 wins, good enough to win the division, to 14, the best record in the league.

Lions head coach Dan Campbell, who’s going into his third full season in Detroit and earned one first-place vote for the award a season ago, is the betting favorite at +850 to win Coach of the Year in 2023. New Broncos head coach Sean Payton has the next-best odds at +900. The Bears’ Matt Eberflus and the Jets’ Robert Saleh are tied at +1200, and Panthers head coach Frank Reich is fifth at +1800.

None of those teams made the playoffs in 2022, and there’s reason to believe each could take a step forward and potentially end its postseason dry spell.

Campbell took the Lions from 3-13-1 in his first season to 9-8 in the span of a year and just barely missed the playoffs. Detroit, which hasn’t qualified for the postseason since 2016, made key additions to its defense, specifically the secondary, this offseason and added two first-round picks in running back Jahmyr Gibbs and linebacker Jack Campbell. With Aaron Rodgers out of the division, the Lions could challenge the Vikings for the top spot in the NFC North.

Payton was brought in by the Broncos to right the ship after a disastrous 5-12 season in Russell Wilson’s first year with the team. There’s nowhere for Denver to go but up after its offense finished last in the league in scoring. Payton has his work cut out for him, though, in a division with the Chiefs and Chargers that’s part of a loaded AFC.

Chicago finished with the worst record in the NFL (3-14) in Eberflus’ first season but seemingly unlocked quarterback Justin Fields’ potential as the year went on.

The front office traded the No. 1 overall pick for a massive package that included star receiver DJ Moore, then drafted offensive tackle Darnell Wright to build around the thirdyear quarterback. It would take quite the turnaround for the Bears to vie for a playoff spot this quickly, but they are on the right track.

The Jets went 4-13 in Saleh’s first year at the helm and 7-10 last season. The offseason trade for Rodgers made the Jets, who at 12 years have the longest active playoff drought in North American pro sports, a prime contender to return to the postseason — even in a division with the Bills and Dolphins.

At 7-10, Carolina nearly won the NFC South in the same season it fired head coach Matt Rhule. Now, Reich and his newly assembled coaching staff are competing in a wide-open division armed with the No. 1 pick, quarterback Bryce Young. A one- or two-win bump could be enough for the Panthers to secure the division title for the first time since 2015.

Campbell, the betting favorite, has the Lions favored to win their division for the first time since 1993. Saleh’s Jets could also be headed back to the postseason as well, and ending that drought in New York could go a long way — it did for Daboll. It’s a deep field full of capable contenders that also includes names like Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, who’s heading into his second season in Miami after making a playoff appearance in Year 1.