REVIEWING THE WORST-PERFORMING TEAMS AGAINST THE SPREAD

The previous three Super Bowl winners all performed poorly against the spread last season.

The Buccaneers were overvalued, the Rams suddenly fell apart and the Chiefs, who went on to win their second ring within the past four years, played a lot of tight games but almost always came out on top. Those three teams were all bad to bet on weekto-week, though to varying degrees and for different reasons.

Let’s review the five teams with the worst records against the spread (ATS) in 2022. Perhaps they should be faded next fall or they’re due for a resurgence in a new season.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Record Against the Spread: 4-12-1

Record Straight Up: 8-9

The Buccaneers covered the spread in the first two games on their schedule but didn’t do so again until Week 10. Covers were few and far between all season long for Tampa Bay, which was listed as a favorite 13 times and covered just four times. The 2021 Super Bowl champs also went winless ATS on those rare occasions they were the underdogs (0-4). The Bucs suffered a colossal upset on the road to the Panthers as 13-point favorites, losing 21-3. That was a week after a 20-18 loss to the Steelers in a game in which Tampa Bay was favored by 9.5 points. In Tom Brady’s last season, his team failed to cover as a touchdown favorite or more four times and lost twice outright in that position.

CHICAGO BEARS

Record Against the Spread: 5-11-1

Record Straight Up: 3-14

The Bears routinely were underdogs of six or more points yet still performed poorly ATS on their way to the worst record in the NFL. They did, however, pull off a pair of shocking upsets. Chicago beat the 49ers, 19-10 in a Week 1 slopfest, despite being 6.5-point underdogs at home; in Week 7, the Bears thrashed the Patriots 33-14 on the road while getting 8.5 points. Head coach Matt Eberflus’ team was favored just twice in 2022: The Bears pushed as three-point favorites in a 23-20 win over the Texans and lost to the Lions 31-30 as a threepoint favorite. Chicago went 2-8 ATS during its 10-game losing streak to end the season.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Record Against the Spread: 6-11 Record Straight Up: 4-12-1

The Colts fell well short of expectations last year, as the preseason favorite to win the AFC South finished with the fourth-worst record in the NFL. Indianapolis went 1-6 ATS as a favorite and lost five times outright in that spot. There were quite a few bad losses for the Colts, who were on the wrong side of history after they blew a 33-0 lead against the Vikings in Week 15 — though they still managed to cover as 3.5-point underdogs in the 39-36 defeat. And as three-point favorites in Jacksonville, Indianapolis was shut out 24-0. The Colts were 11-point underdogs on the road against Dallas, which was nowhere near enough points to cover in a 54-19 blowout loss. On the positive side, the Colts inexplicably beat the eventual Super Bowl-champion Chiefs, winning 20-17 in Week 3 as 4.5-point home underdogs.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Record Against the Spread: 6-10-1

Record Straight Up: 14-3

The Chiefs sure like to keep things interesting. They were favored in all but two games in 2022 on their way to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they rarely covered the spread. Kansas City had some close calls as big favorites, including a 3029 home win over Las Vegas (+7); a 20-17 triumph against Tennessee (+14); a 30-24 victory in Houston (also +14); and a 27-24 win at home against 12.5-point underdog Denver. Andy Reid’s team split the two games it entered as an underdog

— the Chiefs didn’t need the two points in a 41-31 win over the Buccaneers; two weeks later, they fell to the Bills 24-20 at home and did not cover as a 2.5-point dog. The Chiefs were favored by at least a TD in more than half of their games but finished just 4-6 ATS in those scenarios, though they did cover a massive 15.5-point spread against the Rams. Even with Patrick Mahomes, many K.C. games ended up closer than expected.

LOS ANGELES RAMS

Record Against the Spread: 6-10-1

Record Straight Up: 5-12

The Rams followed up their Super Bowl win with their worst season with head coach Sean McVay at the helm. It took a while for the books to catch up with L.A., which was favored in six of its first nine games and went 2-6-1 ATS. The Rams were underdogs in each of their final eight games of the year and went 4-4 ATS with two outright wins. One was a 17-16 win over the Raiders as a six-point underdog in Baker Mayfield’s first start with the team; the other was a 51-14 blowout win over the Broncos on Christmas Day as a threepoint underdog.