Arabs eclipsed by outsiders in jihadist groups

Demographic shift poses challenges for Europe, Russia and China, officials say

PESHAWAR, PAkiStAn — In the Pakistani tribal regions that harbor al Qaeda and a cauldron of other jihadist groups, militants from Central Asia, China, Turkey and even Germany are growing in number, eclipsing Arabs and possibly raising new challenges not just for the U.S. but for Europe, Russia and China, say intelligence officials, analysts and residents of the area.

Al Qaeda, the organization that plotted the Sept. 11 attacks from Afghanistan, consisted largely of Arabs who were led by Osama bin Laden, a Saudi. But stepped-up U.S. drone strikes, Pakistani military offensives and dwindling cash reserves have driven out many of the Arabicspeakers in recent years, says Mahmood Shah, a retired brigadier and former security official in the tribal regions.

Though there are no exact numbers, Shah said intelligence sources in the tribal regions put the number of Arab and African jihadists at about 1,500, compared with 3,500 to 4,000 ranging from Chinese Uighurs and Uzbeks to recruits from Turkey, Russia and Germany.

Two senior U.S. officials said the drone war was affecting al Qaeda numbers and morale. The deaths of high-profile al Qaeda figures have made others skittish, prompting some to leave Pakistan for other battlefields in Syria, Yemen, Iraq or their home countries, the officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to discuss information gleaned from on-theground intelligence.

None of the Central Asian groups figuring in the apparent demographic change is new to the tribal regions. Some were welcomed to Afghanistan during the 1980s Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Others arrived during the Taliban rule that lasted from 1996 to the Americanled invasion of 2001. The breakaway Chechen government even had an embassy in Kabul.

The Sept. 11 attacks focused global attention on the Arab militants, but the changing demographics could have implications for Europe as well as Russia and China, analysts say.

Analysts and officials who track militant movements say they believe al Qaeda’s leadership, including Egyptian Ayman Al Zawahri, remains in Pakistan, where its redoubts have shrunk further under Pakistani military assaults, according to Shah, the ex-brigadier.

But jihadists from outside the Arab world have been getting more attention.

A report on extremist trends released last month by Germany’s domestic intelligence said the Islamic Jihad Union, headquartered in Pakistan’s tribal area, is “widening its sphere in the sense of global jihad to include Europe.” Once dominated by ethnic Uzbeks, the IJU has sought to recruit German converts who have embraced a radical form of Islam as well as Germans of Turkish origin, say analysts familiar with the organization.

According to the SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks Islamist extremist messages, the IJU is known as the European affiliate to al Qaeda. SITE described the IJU’s rise in prominence as a significant development within the global jihadist movement.

Bruce Hoffman, director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Washington’s Georgetown University, said that European governments as well as China and Russia have good reason to keep a close eye on the tribal regions of Pakistan.

The threat from the changing jihadist demographics is “more in the future than immediately. The main threat is that the existing nucleus will attract more and as time goes on the threat will increase. It exists now, but at a lower level,” he said.

While the demographics may be changing, the militant presence in the tribal regions remains strong, despite the drone attacks and the local public’s growing expectation of a Pakistani military sweep, said Safdar Hayat Khan, head of the Tribal Journalists Union.

“There are still so many foreigners there,” he said. “They keep coming and going.”