AN END TO THE DROUGHT?
Central Texas forecasters are cautiously optimistic that a newly issued El Niño watch could mean more rain and higher lake levels.
In the next few months, Central Texans will know if they’ll be catching a break from the biggest weather plague of recent years — the drought.
The remedy in question is El Niño, a weather phenomenon that usually means a warmer and wetter fall and winter for the region. The National Oceanic Atmospheric and Administration issued an official El Niño watch Thursday.
Local forecasters said it’s too early to tell if and how the event would affect Central Texas, but they’re cautiously optimistic. The last time the region had such an event was in 2009, when some lakes almost filled to capacity af- ter what was then the second year of the current drought.
“It’s a favorable development,” said Bob Rose, meteorologist for the Lower Colorado River Authority. “It might bring or shift more toward normal or above normal, but there’s too much uncertainty.”
Rose said the watch is usually issued when there’s a 50 percent chance El Niño will develop in six months.
El Niño develops when the water temperature in the Pacific Ocean near the equator remains half a degree Celsius above normal, jostling rain and temperature patterns around the world. Forecasters have been watching the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean, especially in its western half, and over the past six weeks the waters have been warming at both the surface and below it, and the warmth is spreading, Rose said.
The effects can vary, but the event could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes and milder winters in the northern United States, along with billions of dollars in losses for climate-sensitive food crops across the world, according to The Associated Press. In Texas and the rest of the southern part of the U.S. where the tropical jet stream hovers, it could mean cooler and wetter conditions.
“That’s because, with more rain-producing events, there’s more cloud cover and precipitation, and those elements keep the average daily temperatures lower,” said Steve Smart with the National Weather Service.
He said those are general El Niño predictions, but the actual event could have a very different outcome based on other weather events. The last time an El Niño watch was issued, in 2012, the waters didn’t stay warm enough and the event never developed. The one in 2009 did develop, but the amount of rain varied statewide. Meteorologist for the Lower Colorado River Authority
In Central Texas, the precipitation brought both lakes Buchanan and Travis back to nearly full even though the western part of the state remained fairly dry, Rose said.
Lake Buchanan rose 17 feet over a year starting August 2009, bringing it just 9 feet shy of being full, while Lake Travis rose to just 11 feet short of being full, according to the river authority.
As of Friday, Lake Bu- chanan and Lake Travis were 31 and 53 feet away from being full, respectively.
“Whether (El Niño) translates to lakes filling up or getting a whole lot higher, there are too many variables involved,” Rose said. “Anything is possible.”
If the event develops, it will be a moderate one and the effects won’t be seen until the fall, Rose said. In 2009, 15 inches of rain fell between November 2009 and March 2010, 4 inches above normal at the time, according to weather service data. Typically, at least three more inches of rain falls — a month’s worth — during El Niño, but flooding isn’t expected, said state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon.
He said that, although it’s uncertain whether El Niño will appear, La Niña — the opposite phenomenon that produces dry conditions in the South — won’t be happening.
“Even if the Pacific doesn’t work for us, it’s not going to work against us,” Nielsen-Gammon said.