Is the Bush dynasty over?
Gentlemanly Jeb polls like a candidate out of past century.
DERRY, NEW HAMPSHIRE — Generally speaking, things aren’t going too well when you have to bring your mom to school.
But there, in the West Run- ning Brook Middle School cafeteria, sat Barbara Bush defending her son Jeb Bush at a challenging time in his life.
“Jeb,” she said, “is the nicest, wisest, most caring, loyal, disciplined — not by me. But he’s not a bragger. We don’t allow that. But he’s decent and honest, and he’s everything we need in a president. His dad and I are very, very proud of him. Ladies and gentlemen,
the next president of the United States, Jeb Bush,” she said.
At age 90, Barbara Bush remains a mom her son can count on. And Thursday night he was counting on her brief remarks and mere presence to help a struggling campaign that invites these questions: Are we watching the end of one of America’s great political dynasties? And will it come at the hands of the dynasty’s own political party?
“Tough. Tested. Ready,” say Jeb Bush’s roadside signs in New Hampshire. Maybe they should say, “Going. Going. Gone.”
We could be within one election of the end, at least for now, of the Bush political dynasty. That election could be as soon as the next GOP primary, which comes Tuesday.
“If (U.S. Sen. Marco) Rubio beats him badly in New Hampshire, Jeb is toast,” U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a Jeb Bush backer, told The New York Times a day after the Iowa caucuses in which 97 percent of GOP participants opted for somebody other than sixth-place finisher Bush.
The most recent two polls both show Donald Trump on top in New Hampshire’s GOP presidential primary race with about 30 percent. Rubio of Florida is second, trailing by about 12 points. And both polls listed Bush as fifth, at 10 percent in one and 8 percent in the other. He could move up (or down), but fifth place won’t look good and could be bad enough to cast doubt on his viability.
Here in New Hamp- shire, some voters seem ready to put the Bushes in the political rearview mirror. Nothing personal against Jeb Bush, some say, but it’s time to move on.
“We don’t need another King Bush,” said Dave Love, a 61-year-old handyman from Derry who previously voted for all the Bushes who ran for president but now backs U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.
Younger voters, such as 18-year-old Vincent Vaughns, a Phillips Exeter Academy student, don’t seem to know much about the latest Bush.
“He was the old governor of Florida, I believe,” said Vaughns, who is from Florida.
Others are sticking with the Bushes. Susan Warren wore a “Jeb!” sticker as she waited for her candidate at Colby-Sawyer College in New London.
“Jeb is the answer for America,” she said in her front-row seat.
At 72, Warren’s values align with those she sees in the Bushes.
“We don’t sling mud at other people. We say what we’re going to do. We are leaders, and we’re not followers. We don’t scream at other people, and we state what we want to do and put it into place with reason,” she said politely.
The signs and stickers say “Jeb!” but, even among those who know and like him, they could just as well say “Jeb?”
“If you’ve spent a lot of time with the Bushes, as I have, it’s hard to watch,” said Mark McKinnon, a former top adviser to Jeb’s brother, George W. Bush, who has gotten to know the family well.
Is it something personal about Jeb’s politics or is it Bush family fatigue?
“It’s a combination of a lot of things,” McKinnon said, “but we’re at a point in this country where people just want something really different, and they’re rejecting anything that they’ve seen. They don’t want something that they’ve seen before. And they’ve seen the Bushes before.”
“Jeb,” McKinnon said with respect, “seems like kind of from another time.”
Too quiet, moderate
If Jeb’s campaign fails, the Bush family record in presidential races will fall to three wins (George the elder in 1988 and George the younger in 2000 and 2004) and three losses (the elder George in 1980 and 1992 and Jeb in 2016).
How big a deal were the Bushes, pre-Jeb 2016, in the GOP? After 1972 (Nixon-Agnew), it wasn’t until 2008 (McCain-Palin) that the GOP national ticket didn’t include a Bush or Bob Dole. Two guys at Jeb Bush’s event in Derry wore Reagan-Bush ’84 T-shirts.
Now, on the GOP side, the Bush name can be played as a negative. In the final GOP debate prior to the Iowa caucuses, Bush watched as top-tier candidates Cruz and Rubio verbally duked it out about who’s tougher on immigration.
“You helped design George W. Bush’s immigration policy,” Rubio said in a jab at Cruz.
In this year’s GOP battle, that was a pretty good shot. George W. Bush’s immigration plan failed to find traction in his own party when he was president. It was viewed by some Republicans as too moderate.
University of Texas government professor Bruce Buchanan, a longtime observer of the Bush dynasty, said several factors are working against Jeb Bush, including “Bush fatigue.”
“That, plus the fact that Jeb is something of a low-key fellow,” Buchanan said. “He is not an arresting presence on the stump. He’s a nice guy, and he comes across as friendly.”
That’s far from enough, especially in a large field of big personalities. Plus, he said, Jeb Bush’s politics don’t align with the Republican grass roots.
“They’re relatively moderate folks,” Buchanan said of the Bushes, “and the moderates are in scarce supply on the Republican debate stage this year.”
‘Proud of being a Bush’
Because there’s no other choice, Jeb Bush confronts the family thing head on.
“Here’s the Jeb story,” he said at his New London event. “Let’s get this out of the way first. I’m a Bush and I’m proud of it. I love my mother. She thinks I’m her favorite son.”
“And I’m blessed to have a father that’s the greatest man alive. ... I love him dearly, and I love my brother. So I’m part of the establishment because I’m a Bush. Great, doesn’t bother me a bit. But I’ve also had a life,” he said.
In Derry, with his mom nearby, he said, “I’m part of the establishment because I’m Barbara Bush’s son. I embrace that each and every day. I’m proud of my dad; I’m proud of my brother; I’m proud of being a Bush.”
At the Jan. 28 Iowa debate, the first question to Jeb Bush from Fox News’ Bret Baier was about family pedigree as a problem. The candidate ended his answer with “this election is not about our pedigree.”
Maybe not, but, unfortunately for him, it seems that his time has come as the family’s brand of GOP politics has gone.
“He’s really thoughtful,” McKinnon said. “He’s very deliberative. You look at the guy, and you say, ‘that’s a guy that maybe should be president,’” McKinnon said. “But he’s kind of a 20th-century candidate in the 21st century.”
In New London, as she awaited Jeb Bush, Warren contemplated the potential end of the Bush dynasty: “I think eventually the Bush family, because they believe so strongly in America, that there will be another family member step forward eventually.”
New Hampshire folks probably don’t know much about the current commissioner of the Texas General Land Office, George P. Bush.