Fighting Democrats give GOP hope
Republican sees chance in the attack-filled 8-way race for state Senate seat.
Voters in a district stretching from San Antonio to West Texas will cast ballots Tuesday in an eightway race to replace disgraced Democratic state Sen. Carlos Uresti, and Republicans are entertaining late-breaking hopes of an upset victory in the strongly Democratic district.
With such a crowded field, the special election is almost certainly headed to a runoff between the top two vote-getters to determine who will finish the final two years of Uresti’s term.
The question is whether the final two candidates will be two Democrats who have targeted each other with energetically negative attacks — state Rep. Roland Gutierrez, D-San Antonio, and former U.S. Rep. Pete Gallego, D-Alpine — or whether Republican Pete Flores can take advantage of the divided Democrats to crack the top two spots on election night.
“We know three things for certain,” said Mark Jones, a political science professor from Rice University who has closely watched the special election. “There is going to be a runoff. Roland Gutierrez will be one of the candidates in that runoff. And the second candidate will be named Pete.”
Support from the state’s Republican leaders, including Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, recently coalesced around Flores,
giving the retired game warden from Pleasanton, south of San Antonio, a leg up on two other Republican candidates who have done little campaigning.
Although the endorsements included pro-Flores digital ads bought by Abbott and Patrick, the support arrived as early voting was coming to a close last week — limiting their effectiveness because many voters had already cast ballots in the special election, Jones said.
Another wild card in Tuesday’s special election is state Rep. Tomas Uresti, a San Antonio Democrat who was a late addition to the race to replace his younger brother, who in June was sentenced to 12 years in federal prison after being found guilty of defrauding investors in a Texas oil field services company.
Weighed down by Carlos’ legal troubles, Tomas Uresti lost his bid for re-election to the Texas House when he was defeated in the March Democratic primary, and he has little chance of advancing to a runoff in Tuesday’s Senate election for the same reason, said Henry Flores, an emeritus professor of political science at St. Mary’s University in San Antonio.
But the Uresti family and Gutierrez have clashed for years over political issues in south San Antonio, and Tomas Uresti’s candidacy has been seen as a spoiler — an attempt to split the Democratic ballot in a city where most of the district’s voters live — to help Gallego, who has deep roots in West Texas, Flores said.
“With political rivalries in San Antonio, it’s almost like the Old West — you have a grudge that is going to stay forever,” said Flores, no relation to the Republican candidate for senator.
If Pete Flores has a strong showing with GOP votes, the Democratic infighting could give the Republican a path to the runoff election. “With these three Democrats duking it out, this guy could sneak in,” Henry Flores said.
The prospect has the GOP dreaming of repeating the January 2016 victory of John Lujan, a Republican who took advantage of divided Democrats to make it to a special election runoff, where he defeated Tomas Uresti for a Texas House seat based in south San Antonio. Finishing the term of a retired lawmaker, Lujan served less than nine months in the House while the Legislature was out of session before Uresti defeated him in the November 2016 general election.
If Pete Flores makes it to the runoff Tuesday, he can expect a much more difficult time winning, Jones said, adding that Democrats will be far more motivated to retain a Senate seat than they were to win a relatively meaningless House race in 2016.
“That runoff would become far more important for Democrats than virtually any race on the November ballot,” Jones said. “That’s not to say (Flores) wouldn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell. Really strange things happen in special elections, but it’s only slightly better than a snowflake’s chance.”
Henry Flores agreed. “The Democrats are looking at this seat as absolutely necessary to hold. They can’t afford to lose it,” he said.
Republicans hold a 20-11 advantage in the Texas Senate. Of 15 seats up for election in November, only one is in a competitive district — District 10, where Sen. Konni Burton, R-Colleyville, faces Democrat Beverly Powell.