Unpredictable race suddenly not so much
OUISVILLE, Ky. — Tip a mint julep to the sun rising in the east and always following through on the job at the end of the day in the west.
Offer a hearty well done to Justin Timberlake at awards shows and tax season and late-inlife hair loss. Rest easier, knowing that predictability reigns as the Kentucky Derby embraced sure things over surprise — again. For the fifth straight year, the “and they’re off ” betting favorite converted rosy outlooks into roses of the red and thorny kind.
Always Dreaming turned back 19 horses Saturday, while taming intrigue and the soggy Churchill Downs surface, to join the growing list of the most popular post-time winners. Nyquist did the same in 2016 ... and Triple Crown sensation American Pharoah in ’15 ... and Derby-Preakness champ California Chrome in ’14 ... and Orb in ’13.
In a race with an unpredictable history, from 20 horse fields to 50-1 Giacomo in
L2005, seeing it coming remained en vogue. “Everyone wants to analyze short-term trends in racing,” winning trainer Todd Pletcher said. “I think when you look at it over a longer period of time, who knows, the next five might be 40-1 or higher.”
As Pletcher pondered the question in more detail, he rightly pointed out that the run of favorites matches the five-year run of the Run to the Kentucky Derby’s tiered points system.
In brief, fewer points are awarded to shorter, earlier races. The haul rises, however during the stretch run of races that all go a mile and an eighth. That, Pletcher said, might create a truer snapshot of potential front-runners instead of inflating the reputations of early-campaign sprinters.
“It gives the better horses the best chance to get in,” said Pletcher, who tied D. Wayne Lucas for the most Derby starts with 48. “During that five years, you’ve seen horses come from all kinds of different positions.”
Any chaos was reserved for those cashing tickets at the post-race window, courtesy of Lookin at Lee and California-based Battle of Midway.
At post time, Lee bolted at 40-1 as Midway carried odds of 33-1. The $2 exacta delivered $336.20, the $1 trifecta $8,297.20 and $1 superfecta a wow-inducing $75,974.50. It was an IRS agent’s dream. The race spotlight, though, belonged to a Brooklyn-based dream of boyhood friends Vinny Viola and Anthony Bonomo. Their faces signaled surprise, even if the results meant anything but.
Viola relayed a story about going to the track as a kid with his dad.
“He let me stand in front of the tote board and I had to tell him what numbers moved while he was gone,” Viola said. “It wasn’t until I was much older I realized he was going to get a shot of Scotch in the bar, but that a whole other story.”
The mystery lingering over Derby races has disappeared momentarily, too.
The run of five straight is the first since — brace yourself and any dog-earned history books nearby — 1897. No word on whether then-President Grover Cleveland cashed a win ticket.
Even star trainer Bob Baffert, sidelined with an injury to his horse Mastery and asked for his thoughts on his couch in California, insisted he read the tea leaves of a suddenly dissectable American classic.
“I thought he would win if they didn’t press him early,” Baffert texted.
Thousands among the crowd of 158,070 saw the financial gain possible with Always Dreaming, helping prop him up as a 9-2 favorite. The offspring of Baffert’s Bodemeister delivered, sweeping to a 23⁄4-length victory in 2 minutes, 3.59 seconds.
The post position portended the seemingly knowable, as well.
Always Dreaming won from the No. 5 spot, which entered the 143rd running of the Derby as the second-best position in race history at 10.3 percent. Only the robust 11.3 percent clip of No. 10 had fared better.
The day’s surprise, at least statistically, was that Pletcher-trained horse survived the traffic and tension.
The 49-year-old watched his 1-for-45 record, a mark that avoid a goose egg because of Super Saver in 2010, morph into the most beautiful 2-for-48 in the history of obscure statistics.
Pletcher acknowledged seeing some things in advance, too.
“We felt like he sitting on ‘go,’ almost to the point where our main focus was trying to deliver at 6:45 on Saturday and not 6:45 on Thursday morning.”
Leave it to a trainer to catch himself looking at a clock.
So predictable.