5 things we know about flying right now
After passenger numbers plummeted earlier this year, air travel has taken a significant step forward. On Aug. 16, nearly 863,000 flyers passed through Transportation Security Administration checkpoints around the country, the highest figure since March 17. Though just one-third of last year’s 2.5 million passengers, the traffic is sharply higher than the 87,534 who traveled on April 14 in the depths of the pandemic.
Commercial flights are down 43% in the United States, according to FlightAware.com, a service that tracks flights, but that is the best figure since the pandemic began, and up from a roughly 77% drop in April.
While the future of aviation remains uncertain, here’s what we know about flying now.
The middle seat saga continues
After the pandemic hit, three of the four biggest airlines in the country — American, Delta and Southwest — vowed to block the sale of middle seats to provide more social distancing. United Airlines was the sole holdout.
Now, American has joined United in selling all available seats as demand allows, while Southwest has extended its commitment to less density through Oct. 31. Alaska Airlines is also blocking middle seats through Oct. 31, though it says it may make exceptions for unforeseen circumstances, such as accommodating flyers from a previously canceled flight. JetBlue has extended its open-middleseat policy through Oct. 15, and Delta is leaving adjacent seats open through Jan. 6.
If you’re looking for an uncrowded flight, the odds might be in your favor. Airlines for America, the trade group that represents the major U.S. airlines, said that as of Aug. 9, flights were running about 47% full, versus 88% a year ago.
Low fares may not be a big enough lure
In the current sales season, passengers can fly from as little as $67 round trip from Newark, New Jersey, to Tampa, Florida, on United. Many destinations on American and Southwest are selling for about $100 round trip.
Most sales seem aligned with where travelers say they want to go, which is, generally speaking, away from other people.
Destination Analysts, a travel marketing research firm, has been doing a weekly survey of traveler sentiment for 22 weeks. It found most recently that perennial destinations such as Las Vegas and Orlando, Florida, remain high on the list of where people want to go. New to the top 10 list since the virus are places such as Colorado and Alaska.
“People still want to go to Seattle and New Orleans, but because of the pandemic we’re seeing Colorado and wilderness destinations edge out those urban experiences,” said Erin Francis-Cummings, chief executive of Destination Analysts.
Still, most of the 1,200 adult U.S. travelers surveyed told the firm that they won’t travel no matter how low the fares go. In the last survey, completed Aug. 9, 70% said that no price cut would be large enough to get them to travel.
Holiday travel may be cheaper than normal
Typically, airlines hike fares beginning the weekend before Thanksgiving in anticipation of the rush to the skies for the holiday. Currently, an American flight from Chicago to Miami that sells for $75 in October goes to $356 the week of the holiday.
This year, the number of college students studying from home or families fearful of gatherings may depress holiday travel. Hopper, the airfare prediction app, found that prices are 30% lower than they were in 2019 for Thanksgiving travel, with an average round-trip domestic ticket at $216.
At this point, only Delta has committed to blocking middle seats past October. Additionally, flexible policies that waive fees for flight cancellations or changes will expire well before the holiday (except at Southwest, which is the only carrier that does not charge a fee for ticket changes). United is waiving change fees on new bookings through Aug. 31, though travel may take place later. Alaska’s waiver runs through Sept. 8. American and Delta have extended their waivers to Sept. 30, and JetBlue to Oct. 15.
“Right now, the priority for airlines is to make prices accessible and terms flexible,” said Hayley Berg, economist at Hopper. “Customers are increasingly prioritizing flexibility in fares and their travel experience over anything else.”
First class doesn’t guarantee space
Flying back recently from his second home in Tucson, Arizona, to Chicago, George Fink upgraded to first class on American in hopes of having more space. Instead, he found himself with a seatmate wearing a mask that did not cover his nose. He implored his fellow flyer, who ignored him, to cover up. He next tried the flight attendant, who would not help. The back of the plane was full, making it impossible to move. Then the attendants served a meal.
“That meant everyone in first class took off their masks and ate for half an hour, so all the masking and spacing was for naught,” he said.
Only Delta and Alaska have committed to reducing density in the forward cabin to 50%. Flyers opting for the upgrade on other carriers may well find their wider, more spacious seats just inches from the passengers next to them.
Experts advise looking for airplane configurations that include single seat configurations.
Transmission risks
While the airlines tout their HEPA filters, which scrub more than 99% of germs in the air, there has been very little data on the risks of catching the coronavirus in-flight, even as evidence emerges that respiratory droplets containing the live virus may linger in the air in indoor spaces. To date, no superspreading events have been traced to a flight.
German researchers recently published a study in the JAMA Network about a group of 24 tourists in March who were unwittingly exposed to
COVID-19 in Israel a week before flying to Frankfurt on a 4 1⁄2-hour flight carrying 102 passengers. They found two likely cases of virus transmission on the flight, both in people seated within two rows of an infected passenger. Notably, no one was wearing masks on the flight, which took place before the public health mandate was adopted by airlines.
On June 8, when The New York Times surveyed 511 epidemiologists about when they would travel again by airplane, the largest contingent, 44%, said in three to 12 months. They deemed other activities, including attending a sporting event, concert, funeral or wedding, as riskier.