How Ravens can clinch a postseason berth early
The Ravens could have a playoff berth wrapped up before Christmas.
Entering Week 15 of the NFL regular season, Baltimore leads the AFC North and the conference with a 10-3 record. The Miami Dolphins (9-4), who suffered a shocking loss to the Tennessee Titans on Monday night, are the Ravens’ primary competitors for the AFC’s top seed, which comes with the coveted first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference championship game.
The Cleveland Browns (8-5), with Joe Flacco at quarterback, are still in the hunt for the division title, along with the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7) and Cincinnati Bengals (8-6).
Though the Ravens have one of the league’s most daunting schedules down the stretch, starting Sunday night at the Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5), they have a 93% chance to win the division and a a 64% chance of finishing with the AFC’s top seed, according to The New York Times’ playoff simulator, which estimates odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times.
While the Ravens are a virtual lock to make the postseason for the second straight year, they haven’t officially cracked the seven-team AFC field. But they can with a win Sunday night in Florida — and some help.
According to the NFL, here’s how the Ravens can clinch a playoff spot this weekend:
Ravens win + Broncos loss or tie + Bills loss or tie OR
Ravens win + Broncos loss or tie + Browns loss or tie OR
Ravens win + Broncos loss or tie + Steelers loss or tie OR
Ravens win + Broncos loss or tie + Texans loss or tie OR
Ravens win + Bills loss or tie + Browns loss or tie OR
Ravens win + Bills loss or tie + Steelers loss or tie OR
Ravens win + Bills loss or tie + Texans loss or tie OR
Ravens win + Browns loss or tie + SteelersColts tie OR
Ravens win + Texans loss or tie + SteelersColts tie
(Several additional scenarios involving a Baltimore tie and combination of other teams losing or tying would also clinch a Ravens playoff berth.)
The first part of the equation, a Ravens victory, looks favorable, with Baltimore having won seven of its past eight games and three straight after a memorable 37-31 overtime victory over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday on Tylan Wallace’s walk-off punt return for a touchdown.
The Ravens head to Jacksonville as 3 ½-point favorites over the Jaguars, who have lost two straight and are dealing with a long list of injuries. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who was knocked out of a 34-31 loss to the Bengals on Dec. 4 with an ankle injury, surprisingly returned Sunday but threw three interceptions in a 31-27 defeat against the Browns.
The Denver Broncos (7-6), who have won six of their past seven to jump back into playoff contention, were 4 ½-point underdogs Saturday night against the host Detroit Lions (9-4), who have lost two of their past three. Lions quarterback Jared Goff has struggled of late, while the Broncos defense has been much improved since ranking as one of the league’s worst early in the season.
The Buffalo Bills (7-6) are two-point home favorites Sunday against the visiting Dallas Cowboys (10-3), who have won five straight behind star quarterback and Most Valuable Player front-runner Dak Prescott. Buffalo, led by dynamic quarterback Josh Allen, is coming off a 20-17 road win over the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, aided by an offside penalty against Kadarius Toney that negated a go-ahead touchdown by the wide receiver on a lateral from tight end Travis Kelce with just over a minute left.
The Steelers’ 30-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts (8-6) on Saturday afternoon also helps the Ravens, as would losses by the Browns or Houston Texans (7-6) on Sunday. Pittsburgh
quarterback Mitch Trubisky threw two interceptions before being replaced by Mason Rudolph, while Gardner Minshew II threw three touchdown passes to lead Indianapolis to its fifth win in the past six games.
The Browns are three-point favorites Sunday over the visiting Chicago Bears (5-8), who have won two straight and three of their past four, including a 28-13 victory over the NFC North-leading Lions last week. Quarterback Justin Fields and coach Matt Eberflus are both aiming to prove they should return in 2024 with Chicago, which has shown much improvement on defense since acquiring pass rusher Montez Sweat from the Washington Commanders at the trade deadline.
Cleveland, meanwhile, is 1-1 since making Flacco the starter, with the 38-year-old quarterback throwing for 565 yards with five touchdowns and two interceptions since being signed off the couch late last month.
The Texans are three-point underdogs Sunday against the host Titans (5-8) and could be without star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is in concussion protocol after hitting his head on the turf in Sunday’s 30-6 loss to the New York Jets.
Davis Mills, who is 5-19-1 in 26 career starts, is the backup and would face a Titans team that has won two of its past three behind rookie quarterback Will Levis, including a 28-27 win over the Dolphins on Monday night.