Just a little longer wait
Holliday needs some more time in minors
SARASOTA, Fla. — The most illuminating statements about Jackson Holliday on Friday weren’t said by Mike Elias.
The Orioles general manager fielded questions for 25 minutes and spoke more than 2,000 words about Holliday, the prized jewel of Baltimore’s lauded farm system. But little of what Elias, whose measured approach brought the Orioles from disaster to dominance in just five years, said about the controversial decision to not have the 20-year-old open the season in the major leagues was revealing.
Holliday is a young left-handed hitter who might struggle against southpaws. Holliday is still learning how to play second base. Holliday has barely played in Triple-A.
All three of those reasons Elias gave are valid. They were also true in December.
That’s when Elias said during the winter meetings that Holliday had a “very strong possibility” to make the opening day roster. All Holliday has done since is gain 10 pounds of muscle to improve his power, hit .311 with a .954 OPS this spring, play clean defense at second base, flash his elite speed and act like a veteran, not the baby-faced youngster he is.
Either “very strong possibility” was an unintentional exaggeration or Holliday never really had a chance in the first place.
Instead, the most interesting things said about Holliday on Friday came from Orioles infielders who only benefit from the wunderkind’s reassignment. Ramón Urías said “he looks ready to me.” Kolten Wong said the “business aspect” seems like it was at play in the decision.
On the former, Elias might not disagree. Brandon Hyde certainly doesn’t, as the manager said earlier this week after Holliday went 2-for-3 day with a home run that “it’s hard to say he doesn’t” look like a big leaguer.
But Elias wants his “marquee” youngsters — like Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, who preceded Holliday as baseball’s top prospect — to be everyday players when they reach the show. Listing Holliday’s lack of expe
rience against quality lefthanded pitching and his position change to second base, Elias said the 2022 first overall pick could “benefit” from extra development in Triple-A.
Holliday hit lefties well in the minors, but he did struggle in a small spring training sample against them — nine strikeouts in 15 plate appearances. But his biggest hit of camp was a grand slam off former All-Star southpaw Yusei Kikuchi.
Defensively, Holliday didn’t make an error at second base, a position he didn’t often played last year but transitioned to this spring as Henderson takes over as the full-time shortstop. If Holliday’s second base defense is actually an issue, the Orioles missed an opportunity last season to get him more reps at the position in the minors.
Those reasons aside: It’s not for debate that Holliday is one of the Orioles’ 13 best position players. Not having him on the roster for the first few weeks or months of the season could, in theory, help his long-term development. However, it’s also possible that decision hurts the 2024 Orioles — you know, the team that’s playing this season with newly acquired ace Corbin Burnes in a contract year — and their pursuit of making the playoffs in consecutive years for the first time since the late 1990s or winning the franchise’s first championship since 1983.
On Wong’s point, Elias said service time didn’t play a role, calling the topic a “specter.” Elias has to answer that way, or potentially face a grievance from the MLB Players Association. And there is virtually no way to prove whether any GM is engaging in service-time manipulation, and this case isn’t clear-cut the way others have been in the past.
But, of course it plays a factor. It would be naive to think otherwise when the stakes are this high and the value to be gained is potentially astronomical. Elias’ job is to build a team to win games, and the sport’s rules make it enticing to make decisions with asset maximization in mind.
In this way, it’s almost: Don’t hate the player (or GM), hate the game.
A quick refresher on baseball’s backwards system: Players don’t reach free agency until after playing for six years. MLB calculates a full year of service as 172 days on the active roster (or on MLB’s injured list). The league calendar has 187 days, meaning if a team keeps a top prospect in the minors for a little more than two weeks, the club can gain an extra year of that player’s services.
If Holliday debuts on or before before April 12 and stays in the majors for the remainder of the year, he
would be on track to hit free agency after the 2029 season. But if the Orioles wait until after that date, they’ll likely have Holliday for the 2030 campaign.
New measures instituted in 2022 to curb servicetime manipulation have helped move the needle, but baseball’s economic structure is still nowhere near fair for young players. Last year, Henderson earned the Orioles an additional draft pick at the end of the first round as an incentive for winning the American League Rookie of the Year Award in a season in which he accrued a full year of service. The benefit to an organization for gaining a star player’s seventh season is far greater than any incentive MLB can provide — no matter how much the
Orioles covet their draft picks.
Elias has said in the past that he believes his track record of promoting prospects proves the organization isn’t engaging in service-time manipulation. Henderson made his debut at 21 years old. Rutschman came up when he was healthy in 2022. Rodriguez was the next man up when there was an injury early in 2023. But Henderson’s debut came at just the right time for him to maintain his rookie eligibility in 2023 and earn Baltimore an extra draft pick, and an injury prevented the Orioles from facing the same crossroads with Rutschman in 2022 as they faced with Holliday this spring.
Rutschman finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting and gained
himself a full year of service time for that season — another new rule to help combat service-time manipulation — and Holliday has the opportunity to do the same this year if he debuts in time to make a significant impact.
One aspect that’s not helping the optics for the Orioles is their decision with Holliday contrasts with what several other MLB teams have done with their prized prospects.
In fact, there are more 20-year-old top prospects with the first name “Jackson” who are breaking camp with their clubs than those who aren’t. San Diego and Milwaukee — two markets of similar size to Baltimore — both chose different paths for their Jacksons. The Padres made Jackson Merrill
their opening day center fielder despite the former Severna Park star’s lack of experience at the position, and Jackson Chourio, the sport’s second-best prospect behind Holliday, has made the Brewers’ roster. Those teams are putting 2024 over 2030 when it came to their Jacksons.
The Texas Rangers, the team that swept the Orioles in the AL Division Series and went on to win the World Series last year, are having Wyatt Langford, their top prospect who has barely played in Triple-A, open the season in the majors.
The Rangers are pushing their chips to the middle of the table in hopes of repeating as World Series champions. The Orioles will always have 2030.