‘PHAROAH WEATHER’ Past performance favors ‘Pharoah’ in Crown bid

Rainy arrival in New York doesn’t faze horse, trainer

Approaching the starting gate for the 2003 Belmont Stakes, jockey Jerry Bailey had reason to be confident that his horse, Empire Maker, was going to stop Funny Cide’s quest for a Triple Crown.

Bailey knew Empire Maker had beaten Funny Cide in the Wood Memorial by a half-length on the same track and thought he “could have won by five.”

Because Funny Cide was known more as a speed horse — recording the 10th-fastest time ever in the Kentucky Derby and then blowing the field away in the Preakness, which Empire Maker sat out with an

ELMONT, N.Y. — New York offered up a gloomy, chilly Tuesday afternoon for the arrival of racing’s next would-be Triple Crown winner. In fact, the rain intensified just as his trailer rumbled onto the grounds at Belmont Park.

But then, American Pharoah rather likes the muck. He glided through a monsoon to win the Preakness as the rest of the field crumbled behind him.

“Yep, this is Pharoah weather, it is,” trainer Bob Baffert said as he waited for his horse to show up after a near-two-hour slog from the airport. “He likes wet.

injured foot — Bailey figured Funny Cide would run out of a steam in the longer Belmont.

“You knew Funny Cide was going to be on fire coming out [of the starting gate] and it minimized his chances at the mile and a half,” Bailey said.

For some of the same reasons, Bailey, now a Hall of Famer and a racing analyst for NBC, believes American Pharoah will win Saturday’s Belmont Stakes and become the first thoroughbred since Affirmed in 1978 to complete the elusive Triple Crown.

The top 2-year-old

American Pharoah’s time in the Derby (2 minutes, 3.02 seconds) was among the slowest since 2000 and his performance in the Preakness was impressive only because of the messy conditions. His winning time (1:58.46) was the slowest at Pimlico Race Course since 1950.

“I’m not a numbers guy, I’m a visual guy and an experience guy and I just try to compare how they are relative to their peers in an individual year,” Bailey said. “I thought as a 2-year-old he was three or four lengths better than his competition, and I continue to think that this year. He’s just better than his competition. It’s not like he wasn’t and he’s blossomed and now in the last three weeks he’s better. I think he’s been better all along.”

Past performance is on the side of American Pharoah, who as a 2-year-old was considered the best male horse in the country.

The past four Triple Crown winners — Affirmed (1978), Seattle Slew (1977), Secretariat (1973) and Citation (1948) — all received the honor, as did Count Fleet (1946) and War Admiral (1937).

Here’s what could be a more telling statistic: Of the 23 horses who have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown but failed at Belmont, only one was the champion 2-year-old. That was Spectacular Bid (1979), widely considered the best horse not to have won a Triple Crown.

‘The style to do it’

American Pharoah’s trainer knows all about losing at the Belmont. Of the 13 horses who have failed to complete the Triple Crown since Affirmed, three — Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998 and War Emblem in 2002 — also were trained by Bob Baffert. Silver Charm and Real Quiet finished second.

“The way I look at it is, it wasn’t meant to happen,” Baffert told reporters the morning after the Preakness. “He’s the best horse so far. He just has to dig it out one more time. I’ve never had a horse win the Preakness like that. My other horses that won were battling pretty good. War Emblem was light and it really affected him.

“This horse here, he’s something special. He’s fast, he can get out of trouble. He can sit a little bit. He’s not totally one-dimensional. He has the style to do it. ... If he runs his race, he can do it. We just have to get him rejuvenated. If he runs that race again, he’s going to be tough to beat.”

Those who have watched American Pharoah steamroller the competition — winning this year by 61⁄ lengths at the Rebel Stakes, by eight lengths at the Arkansas Derby and by seven at the Preakness — make them think he has what the other Triple Crown wannabes didn’t possess.

Billy Turner, who trained Seattle Slew, has been more impressed by American Pharoah than by any of his recent predecessors.

The ability to adjust

What sticks out to Turner is that American Pharoah adjusted to a crowded field at Churchill Downs and a sloppy track at Pimlico to win the first two legs. Turner also liked that American Pharoah won in Louisville in a pedestrian time.

“He didn’t have anywhere near the best of it in the Derby, but he won the race very nicely,” Turner said of American Pharoah’s one-length victory over Firing Line. “In the Preakness, he just took control from the start and it was all over. He was just a superior horse in the race.”

Turner knows the track known as “The Big Sandy” — Belmont Park — has long proved a daunting and taxing stage for many horses hoping to become part of the sport’s lore.

“He may not really relish going the mile and a half, but ... he moves so much better than the rest of them, that they’re going to have him to beat,” Turner said.

Hall of Fame jockey Edgar Prado, whose three Triple Crown victories include stopping War Emblem’s bid for history with 70-1 long-shot Sarava, said American Pharoah’s win in seemingly treacherous conditions at Pimlico added to his reputation.

Said Bailey: “I don’t see any condition that they can come up that will put a monkey wrench into the way he runs. He seems to have handled everything.”

Bad luck at Belmont

Still, Prado and others know racing luck — typically bad when it comes to Triple Crown hopefuls — plays a part.

“Anything can happen during the race, even when the gates open,” Prado said. Or even before the gates open. Consider what happened to Spectacular Bid, who on the morning of the 1979 Belmont stepped on a safety pin and developed an infection. Though some wonder how it affected Bid’s performance, more point to an unnecessarily aggressive early ride from jockey Ronnie Franklin as the reason the horse was unable to hold a rather substantial lead.

Of all the horses who have failed recently in their try for the Triple Crown, Bailey says Big Brown was the most promising before American Pharoah.

In 2008, Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby by 43⁄ lengths as a 2-1 favorite and the Preakness by 51⁄ lengths, going off at 1-5. Despite a 3-inch crack in one of his hoofs discovered three days after winning in Baltimore, Big Brown was a 3-10 favorite going into the Belmont. In a move that was second-guessed heavily afterward, jockey Kent Desormeaux pulled Big Brown up shortly after reaching the backstretch, saying he “had no horse left.”

Peaking at the right time?

Since finishing fifth in his maiden race at Del Mar in August — nearly 10 lengths behind the winner — American Pharoah has had a smooth ride.

Baffert rested American Pharoah for more than five months after the horse injured a leg in winning the Grade 2 FrontRunner Stakes at Santa Anita on the day of the Breeders’ Cup in September. He raced just twice more before going to Churchill Downs in May.

Here’s a scary thought for those trying to stop American Pharoah’s quest Saturday.

“He might now just be peaking,” Bailey said.