In 12 close losses, big swings the difference
Turnovers, big plays allowed on defense, penalties have crushed win probabilities
It’s an inglorious streak, considering their 4-8 record, but on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks, the Ravens will be in the running for an NFL-record 13th consecutive game decided by one score or less.
No team has begun a season with 12 straight games decided by eight points or fewer, as the Ravens have. It has been a lesson in the importance of not letting up for a single play for the defense, a lesson on the major consequences of turnovers for the offense and a lesson in late-game heartbreak for fans.
Each game comes down to the end, but more often than not, it’s decided long before. An examination of the in-game win probabilities and expected point values of every play this season reveals costly turnovers, big opposing passing plays and crushing penalties to be the biggest swings in the Ravens’ dozen close games.
Players and coaches know it’s their job to either prevent such swings from happening, or overcome them.
“A loss is a loss is a loss,” defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan said. “We’re definitely not going to walk around like it’s OK to lose. We’re not fine with it, by any means. But that just goes to show, it’s a game of inches, and you never know which play is going to be the play that can turn the game around.” TV: Radio:
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For each play in every NFL game, Pro-Football-Reference.com lists the amount of points that can be expected from the given down, distance, field position and game situation, known as expected points added. It also charts win probability throughout the game.
This week, outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil and defensive coordinator Dean Pees took shots at the NFL’s referees. Dumervil said the Ravens have been “taken advantage of” by officials. Pees said the officiating has been “lousy.” The biggest swings in two of the Ravens’ losses came because of penalties.
In Week 2, with 41seconds remaining and the Oakland Raiders driving for the game-winning touchdown, a soft defensive-holding call on safety Will Hill negated his interception. The difference between the interception standing and the result of the penalty caused the Raiders’ win probability to surge 41 percentage points, the biggest swing in that game.
Likewise, the officiating error the NFL acknowledged at the end of the Week 10 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars represented a massive swing. Had the Jaguars been penalized for not being set in their formation before the snap at the end of the quarter, the Ravens would have won. Instead, the play went off, Dumervil received a 15-yard face-mask penalty, and the Jaguars had a 46 percent chance of winning on kicker Jason Myers’ 53-yard field goal, which they did.
Offensively, interceptions by quarterbacks Joe Flacco and Matt Schaub have affected the Ravens’ chances more than anything else. Flacco’s third-quarter interception returned for a touchdown against the Denver Broncos in Week 1 swung the win probability 43.4 percentage points in the Broncos’ favor.
The biggest swings in expected points added in five games came through turnovers committed by the quarterbacks: Flacco’s interception against Denver (a 7.96-point swing), Flacco’s second-quarter interception against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4 (5.85-point swing), Flacco’s second-half fumble against the Jaguars (5.04-point swing), Flacco’s second interception in Week 11 against the St. Louis Rams (5.49-point swing) and Schaub’s interception returned for a touchdown late in the first half Sunday against the Miami Dolphins (8.27-point swing).
A sixth turnover, the fumble on a
The swing of things
Along the Ravens’ way to tying the NFL record with 12 straight games decided by eight points or fewer, familiar factors have swung games in or against their favor: turnovers, big plays allowed on defense, and questionable officiating. Here are the five biggest plays in terms of expected points added (EPA) — a measure of how each play affects potential changes in the game’s score — over the Ravens’ first dozen games. All data via Pro-Football-Reference.com.
Game
Play punt return by wide receiver Jeremy Ross against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7, was the pivotal point in that game as well, causing a 6.22-point swing in expected points and 23.4 percentage point increase in the Cardinals’ chances of winning.
“Turnovers are, obviously, explosive plays, and turnovers are going to really set the tone for whether you win or lose games, in most cases,” offensive coordinator Marc Trestman said. “We try to make the right decisions, get the ball to the right guy. Sometimes it doesn’t work out. Certainly, when you’re turning the ball over, it makes it very, very hard on your football team.”
The defense takes some blame, too, for the big plays that hurt the unit through the first half of the season. Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper’s 68-yard touchdown came from a position on the field where no
EPA
Game result points were expected, making that the most valuable play in terms of expected points added in that game.
A similar honor also goes to former Raven and current San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Torrey Smith’s 76-yard touchdown catch in Week 6 (7.27-point swing and a 21.4 percentage-point increase in San Francisco’s win probability) and San Diego Chargers wide receiver Malcolm Floyd’s 70-yard touchdown in the Ravens’ Week 8 win (7.03-point swing, 36.2 percentage-points increase).
There have been a few gameswinging moments in the Ravens’ favor, even if not all resulted in victories. Inside linebacker C.J. Mosley’s fourth-quarter fumble return for a touchdown in Week 3 against the Cincinnati Bengals raised the Ravens’ win probability by 60 percentage points, and the field-goal block turned touchdown by Hill in Week 13 against the Cleveland Browns came at a time when the Ravens had a 22.1 percent chance of winning, swinging it nearly 78 points.
But those plays have been too few and far between.
“It just hasn’t been our lot this year that way,” coach John Harbaugh said. “That’s the way it goes, and you have to find a way to overcome it.”