Crowded field for playoff spots as days of pennant races return
Who says the second wild card has taken the drama out of baseball?
With September upon us, it seems the entire American League is about to embark on a chase for the league’s five playoff spots, with division races and the pursuit of the two additional postseason berths as crowded as ever. The days of pennant races are back.
The Orioles head into September with a tenuous hold on a playoff spot, falling into a tie for the second wild card entering Thursday’s day off.
They seem to be the only AL playoff hopeful trending in the wrong direction, but just as they’ve deflected negativity all year, they plan to continue to do so now.
“We’ve got a month of baseball left,” manager Buck Showalter said.
“We knew August was going to be tough. We did some good things, but not as many as we would have liked. We have an opportunity. There’s a lot of baseball to be played. Anybody that sells us short doesn’t get the essence of our players. That’s fine. Tonight, 7:05 TV: MASN Radio: 105.7 FM
They’ve been doing that all year to us.”
Here’s a breakdown of the American League playoff picture, including each team’s standing and playoff percentages, and the most important thing about their stretch run.
Division leaders
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (76-57) Where they stand: First place in AL East, two games up on the Boston Red Sox Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 93.9 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 94.2 percent The most important thing: In addition to a relentless lineup, the Blue Jays starters have a 3.72 ERA, best in the AL. Toronto has been something of a sleeping giant all year, but the team seems plenty awake as September hits. CLEVELAND INDIANS (76-56) Where they stand: First place in AL Central, 41⁄ games up on the Detroit Tigers Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 97.3 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 97.3 percent The most important thing: Six weeks ago, no one in the league would choose its own rotation over Cleveland’s. But only two AL teams have been worse since the All-Star break in that category, and it’s not going in the right direction. Luckily, one of the deeper lineups in baseball is helping hold a comfortable division lead. TEXAS RANGERS (80-54) Where they stand: First place in AL West, 81⁄ games up on the Houston Astros Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 99.5 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 99.7 percent The most important thing: A lineup with the perfect mix of youth and experience, and a pitching staff led by Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish have built quite a lead. The most important thing for Texas is that no one else gets hurt — especially on the pitching staff.
Wild-card leaders
BOSTON RED SOX (74-59) Where they stand: Two games up in wild-card chase, two games out of first in AL East Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 86.9 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 84 percent The most important thing: No one has ever doubted their lineup. They have doubted the starting rotation, but it has a 3.65 ERA since the All-Star break. The stumbling block could be their bullpen, which has imploded with the likes of Clay Buchholz,
Next 5 O’s games
TODAY: Yankees@Orioles, 7:05 p.m., MASN Starters: Yankees’ Chad Green (2-3, 4.09 ERA) vs. Dylan Bundy (7-5, 3.71) SATURDAY: Yankees@Orioles, 7:05 p.m., MASN Starters: Yankees’ CC Sabathia (8-11, 4.31) vs. Kevin Gausman (6-10, 3.73) SUNDAY: Yankees@Orioles, 1:335 p.m., MASN, Ch. 13 Starters: Yankees’ Michael Pineda (6-11, 5.12) vs. Wade Miley (8-11, 5.43) MONDAY: Orioles@Rays, 1:10 p.m., MASN Starters: Ubaldo Jimenez (5-11, 6.46) vs. Rays’ Jake Odorizzi (9-5, 3.56) TUESDAY: Orioles@Rays, 7:10 p.m., MASN Starters: Yovani Gallardo (4-7, 5.62) vs. Rays’ Drew Smyly (6-11, 4.94) ONLINE: Go to baltimoresun.com/orioles for a photo gallery of gold medalist Helen Maroulis throwing out the first pitch at the IronBirds game Junichi Tazawa and Brad Ziegler now manning the eighth inning. ORIOLES (72-61) Where they stand: Tied with Detroit for second wild card, four games out of first in AL East Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 31.7 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 27.4 percent The most important thing: Can this team, for the first time in months, get itself in step? Sporadic quality from the Orioles starting rotation isn’t lining up with the sporadic outbursts from the flagging offense, and the result is a team that has gone flat. Like most in their division, they control how they’ll finish. Nineteen of their last 29 games are against fellow playoff aspirants. They’ll have to win their way in. DETROIT TIGERS (72-61) Where they stand: Tied with the Orioles for second wild card, 41⁄ games out of first in AL Central Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 50.4 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 52.4 percent The most important thing: Detroit has pitched its way back into contention, with the rotation posting a league-best 3.49 ERA since the AllStar break, thanks to youngsters Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd, plus veteran Justin Verlander. If the Tigers continue that, a wild-card spot is well within reach.
Wild-card contenders
HOUSTON ASTROS (71-62) Where they stand: One game back of second wild card Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 25.6 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 26.3 percent The most important thing: For a lineup with young stars Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer atop it every day, the Astros offense sure is inconsistent. They’ll need to fix that and a lot more to make it through a stretch of 13 straight games against Texas, Cleveland and the Chicago Cubs — all first-place teams. This would qualify as earning a playoff spot. NEW YORK YANKEES (69-63) Where they stand: 21⁄ back of second wild card Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 5.3 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 7.8 percent The most important thing: The Yankees had their biggest name, Alex Rodriguez, retire, and traded outfielder Carlos Beltran, starter Ivan Nova, and relievers Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. They aren’t supposed to be in contention, but a rising young core led by catcher Gary Sanchez (11 home runs in 25 games) has the Yankees playing as if they don’t know any better. KANSAS CITY ROYALS (69-64) Where they stand: Three games back of second wild card Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 4.3 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 5.4 percent The most important thing: After four months of mediocrity, the Royals have gotten back to their winning formula — taking close and crazy games, getting pitching out of nowhere, hitting when they need to and having a blast doing it. Kansas City has won 18 of its past 24 games to spark a playoff push no one else in the AL wanted to see again. SEATTLE MARINERS (68-65) Where they stand: Four games back of second wild card Playoff odds: FanGraphs: 5 percent; Baseball Prospectus: 5.5 percent The most important thing: The Mariners are a long way back, but16 of their last 29 games are against the Los Angeles Angels, Oakland Athletics and Minnesota Twins — three of the four worst teams in the AL. Not many teams finish the season with an easier schedule than Seattle.