In it for the long haul
Modern strategy may extend games, alienate some fans
BOSTON — Games have averaged 3 hours, 351⁄ minutes, up six minutes from the 2017 postseason and more than a half-hour over the regular season.
Strikeouts have topped hits in seven of eight postseason matchups. Starting pitchers usually don’t finish the fifth inning, and use of relievers is up markedly in an era of “bullpenning.”
Have t he changes brought about by analytics made baseball less appealing to casual fans?
“There’s certainly something to be said for that, because ball in play, double plays, defense, that’s always exciting,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said ahead of Tuesday night’s World Series opener against the Red Sox. “I know our series there was a lot of strikeouts, but there was the strategy part of it — I think that that’s very exciting for a baseball purist that loves to see what managers think.”
Postseason games this year have averaged a record 18.8 strikeouts, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, up from 18.4 last year and 18.0 in 2016. There were 526 whiffs and 416 hits in the first 28 postseason games, including 161 strikeouts and 110 hits in the Dodgers’ win over the Brewers in the NL Championship Series.
While viewers hope for action, managers and many players are caught up in the tactical chess match between dugouts prepped by front office analytical teams.
“It’s more interesting. It is,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora said. “There’s so much information now that you Fans at Fenway Park settle in for what could be a long night as rain falls before Game 1 of the World Series. G1: Dodgers at Red Sox, late G2: Dodgers (Ryu) at Red Sox (Price) 8:09 p.m. Wednesday G3: Red Sox (TBD) at Dodgers (Buehler) 8:09 p.m. Friday G4: Red Sox at Dodgers 8:09 p.m. Saturday G5: Red Sox at Dodgers 8:15 p.m. Sunday G6: Dodgers at Red Sox 8:09 p.m. Tuesday G7: Dodgers at Red Sox 8:09 p.m. Oct. 31 All on FOX Games 5-7 if necessary can actually exploit weaknesses on the team, not only rely on the starters or your usual setup guy or your closer. Somebody the last few years figured out that there’s a lot of off days in the playoffs, that you can actually use your starters as relievers or you can go with your relievers for multiple innings, and it’s fun. It’s fun as a baseball fan.”
Computer analysis helps teams arrange defensive shifts that take away hits and concludes starting pitchers’ effectiveness often drops the third time through the batting order.
Starting pitchers averaged 51⁄ innings and 83 pitches in the 2016 postseason, according to Sports Info Solutions. That dropped to 4.7 innings and 80 pitches last year, and 4.5 innings and 73 pitches this year.
Could starting pitchers join dinosaurs in extinction?
“You’re still going to need to get innings from your starters,” Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw said. “Over the course of 162 games you’re going to need guys to pitch six or seven innings.”
“If I’m a fan of a team, I want us to have the best chance to win,” Red Sox starter David Price said. “If that means taking the starter out to bring in a reliever for a better matchup, I want our guys to have the best chance to win.”