Offensive production ready to rise
Week 13. Plain and simple, it’s the week where some leagues will write the final chapters of their regular seasons, leaving only a handful of teams eligible to pursue championship dreams. Other leagues consider Week 13 as their next-to-last week of the regular season, lending hope to those seeking to slide into the playoffs.
Unlike last week, Week 13 offers better potential for offensive production. Keep in mind that Thanksgiving Day has three games on the slate, so make sure lineups are firmed up before the first whiff of turkey and glazed ham.
Start: Sam Darnold, QB, Jets: In his last two games, Darnold has completed 39 passes for 608 yards with six TDs. He’s thrown 11 of his 13 TDs in his last five games and continues his run of favorable matchups against a Bengals defense that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to QBs.
Sit: Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans: Most weeks, Watson is a must-start. However, facing the Patriots defense constitutes a huge exception. The champs have allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the league while allowing a leaguelow four TD passes. On average, the Patriots allow just under six fantasy points per game to QBs, making a Watson start a potential disaster.
Start: Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders: Don’t be discouraged by Jacobs’ season-low 34 rushing yards in last week’s loss at the Jets. Jacobs, who had rushed for at least 66 yards in each game before last Sunday, starts a new streak at the expense of a Chiefs defense that has allowed the most fantasy points to RBs. The Chiefs allow 5.1 yards per carry, second-worst in the league, which makes Jacobs’ potential to break a long gainer very strong.
Sit: David Johnson, RB, Cardinals: Johnson has rushed for 6 yards on four carries in his last two games. The Cards have all but given Kenyan Drake the starting role, meaning that Johnson will be left with the table scraps of the running game. Drake’s pass-catching skills also nullifies the prospect of Johnson being used on passing downs, and it’s not a stretch to consider releasing him at this point.
Start: John Brown, WR, Bills: The Cowboys don’t have a Chris Harriscaliber corner, which means Brown will see far more than the four targets he got against Harris and the Broncos last week. Brown had 25 targets the two weeks before that and could be a favorite of Bills QB Josh Allen on Thanksgiving.
Sit: James Washington, WR, Steelers: Although he continues to show big-play potential, Washington’s upside will be hampered by the erratic play of rookie QBDevlin Hodges and a Browns defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards in the league. He’s a high-risk, high-reward play, but with open dates no longer in play, there will be better options available.
Start: Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers: There’s been a revival of sorts from Olsen, who has caught 18 of his 22 targets over the last three weeks. Olsen hasn’t scored a TDsince Week 3, but that run could come to an end against the Redskins, who have allowed the 10thmost fantasy points to TEs. The Redskins are 25th in TD passes allowed, making Olsen and QB Kyle Allen a good pass-catch combo this week.
Sit: Jimmy Graham, TE, Packers: Graham has become a forgotten part of the the Packers passing game, getting only five targets in the last two games. He’s no longer a big-play threat, having managed just two games of better than 60 receiving yards. That’s not going to change against a Giants defense that is third in the league in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Start: Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles: There’s a chance Jordan Howard returns, but Sanders is set for a potentially big afternoon against a Dolphins defense that allows 6.4 yards per play, second worst in the league. Sanders would be a solid PPR play considering that QB Carson Wentz will have to continue relying on him as the Eagles receiving group remains banged up. The Dolphins allow the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs, all the more reason to run with Sanders.
Sit: Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: He has struggled over the last four games, with eight INTs and just four TD passes. That trend is likely to continue against the Broncos, who limited him to 211 yards and recorded two picks in Week 5. The Broncos allow the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs, which means fantasy teams banking on Rivers this week could be greatly disappointed.
This column was provided to The AP by SportsGrid Inc., www.sportsgrid.com