Alabama’s dynasty not buried yet
Welcome to the college football overreaction index, where we examine the most important storylines from the past weekend of games to determine what’s worth paying attention to and what’s getting a little too much attention.
Here are the biggest takeaways from Week 14.
With Alabama set to miss the College Football Playoff for the first time, this could be the end of Nick Saban’s dynasty.
Verdict: Overreaction.
One year is not a trend. This is the most disappointing season for Alabama under Saban since 2014, which ended with a Sugar Bowl loss to Oklahoma, but let’s not bury the Crimson Tide just yet.
Consider what Auburn needed just to get past Bama, 48-45, on Saturday. Two pick-sixes, including one caught off a receiver’s backside at the goal line. An extra second put back on the clock before halftime, allowing the Tigers to kick a 52-yard field goal. A missed 30-yard field goal by Alabama with two minutes left. An illegal-substitution penalty by the Tide on fourth-and-4 with 1:06 to go, allowing Auburn to run out the clock.
And all with backup quarterback Mac Jones filling in for injured Heisman Trophy contender Tua Tagovailoa.
In total, Alabama committed 13 penalties, the most in a game during Saban’s 13 seasons in Tuscaloosa. And the kicking woes, a thorn in Saban’s side for years, are unprecedented. According to ESPN Stats & Information, since Saban’s first season at Alabama in 2007, Tide kickers have missed 101 field-goal attempts, eight more than any other FBS team in that span.
Give credit to Auburn for hanging tough, but Alabama cost itself at every opportunity.
Would an 11-1 Alabama team have made the playoff field? With the Big 12 guaranteed a 12-1 champion and Utah poised to win the Pac-12 at 12-1 — not to mention the possibility of Georgia beating LSU in the SEC championship game — it would have been difficult.
But as long as Saban is coaching, the Tide will bring in one of the nation’s best recruiting classes each year and develop those players into NFL-caliber talent.
It’s time to start wondering if Michigan will ever be able to surpass its arch rival.
Verdict: Not an overreaction.
Michigan has the resources to be a perennial national title contender. Jim Harbaugh was hired — and paid handsomely — to make the Wolverines just that. So why can’t Michigan beat Ohio State?
Clearly, there is a gap between the Buckeyes and the team not-so-affectionately referred to as “The School Up North.”
It’s not that Michigan isn’t good under Harbaugh. The Wolverines won 10 games in three of his first four seasons, and can get to 10 again this year with a bowl victory. But Michigan has been unable to take that next step even in its own division. This will be the fourth year that Harbaugh will finish third or worse in the Big Ten East.
Under Harbaugh, Michigan will be a factor in the Big Ten every year. But until it finds players on par with Justin Fields, J.K. Dobbins and Chase Young, it won’t topple the behemoth in Columbus.
Utah is a win away from reaching the playoff.
Verdict: Overreaction.
Utah did what it needed to do Saturday, topping Colorado, 45-14. One challenge remains: beating Oregon in the Pac-12 title game.
With Alabama’s loss, Utah is poised to take the No. 5 spot behind Georgia in the next College Football Playoff rankings. If the Bulldogs lose to LSU in the SEC title game and the Utes beat the Ducks, Utah is in, right?
The way Utah plays against Oregon will be a factor, the same way style points will matter for Oklahoma and Baylor in the Big 12 title game. One of those teams will finish 12-1, which means it will be compared with Utah for the final playoff spot.
The championship games are the final data point for the committee to consider, and it’s impossible to overstate how important those games are.