Ravens will win AFC North

Average injury luck would put the Ravens well ahead of the dismal health picture they faced last season as they crashed from the top of the conference to out of the playoffs in six weeks.

They’re more likely to finish first in pass defense than last as they face an unremarkable slate of quarterbacks. Jackson has always won, even last year, when he grew skittish behind an unreliable offensive line that could be significantly better if Stanley gives the Ravens anything. It would be an upset if this team does not turn around to some degree.

So what about the competition?

The Steelers will rely on a rookie or an also-ran at quarterback, playing behind a suspect offensive line. The Cleveland Browns won’t have their franchise quarterback, Deshaun Watson, until the last six games.

That leaves the defending champion Bengals, a formidable foe with Joe Burrow at cornerback, a brilliant young receiver in Ja’Marr Chase and an improved offensive line to help keep Burrow on the field. The Bengals thumped the Ravens twice and made a stunning run to the Super Bowl, so if you favor them, it’s hard to argue. But they were inconsistent last year — 17th in overall DVOA and just two games ahead of the Ravens despite vastly better injury luck. They could be a better team this year and still lose the division because of a tougher schedule and a few key injuries.