Israel’s lawmakers walk a tightrope
Amid new violence, far right may further inflame tense times
JERUSALEM — The new far-right government in Israel has been in power for only a month, but on its watch, Israelis and Palestinians have already experienced one of their region’s most violent phases, outside a full-scale war, in years.
Nine Palestinians were shot dead Thursday in the deadliest Israeli raid in the West Bank for at least a half-decade. Then, a Palestinian gunman killed seven people Friday night outside a synagogue in Jerusalem, the deadliest attack on civilians in the city since 2008. And Saturday, an attacker who police said was 13 years old shot and injured two Israelis near a settlement in east Jerusalem.
While the events were not unique to this government’s tenure, analysts fear the policies and leaders of the new Israeli administration — the most right-wing in the country’s history — are likely to further inflame the situation.
The new government is an alliance of settler activists, hard-line nationalists and ultraconservatives helmed by Benjamin Netanyahu, and its leaders variously seek to annex the West Bank, further ease the Israeli army’s rules of engagement and entrench Israeli control over a sacred site in Jerusalem. All of that has already provoked a surge in Palestinian anger.
Under the previous government, “Israeli policy was designed to maintain the illusion of stability,” said Nimrod Novik, a former senior Israeli official and an analyst at the Israel Policy Forum. Now, Novik added,
“That cover has been taken away.”
To be sure, the government has also inherited an unstable dynamic from previous administrations. The Jerusalem shooting drew comparisons with a wave of Palestinian attacks that killed 19 Israelis and foreigners last spring, during the previous Israeli government’s tenure.
The West Bank raid was the continuation of a 10-month Israeli military campaign in the territory that the previous government began in response to that wave of violence last spring and that led to the deaths of more than 170 Palestinians in 2022, the highest annual toll in the West Bank over more than a decade and a half. Thirty Israelis and foreigners were killed last year by Palestinians, the highest toll since 2014.
The long-term roots of this cycle — including Israel’s occupation of the West
Bank in 1967 and the establishment of a two-tier legal system there for Israeli settlers and Palestinians; the failure of peace negotiations, which stalled in 2014; and Palestinian rejection of Israel and violence against Israelis — also far predate any contemporary Israeli government.
Nevertheless, extremists in the current government were elected on promises that have added fuel to Palestinian anger. And they have proved emboldened by the rise in tensions.
Itamar Ben-Gvir, the new minister in charge of police, won a record number of seats in the general election in November after campaigning to take stronger action against Palestinians he deems a terrorist threat and playing off fears exacerbated by interethnic riots between Arabs and Jews in 2021.
The attack in Jerusalem on Friday has already heightened calls from his
supporters to make good on his promises.
“Itamar, deal with them, Itamar!” shouted one bystander after Ben-Gvir arrived at the scene of the attack. “We elected you, Itamar.”
“The government needs to respond,” Ben-Gvir replied. “With God’s help, I hope that that’s what happens.”
Ben-Gvir did not give details, but his background has made Palestinians particularly apprehensive of his next steps. In the 1990s, he was barred from serving in the Israeli army because security officials deemed him too extremist. Until 2020, he displayed a large portrait in his home of a Jewish gunman who killed 29 Palestinians in a West Bank mosque in 1994.
“There’s a major change here,” said Hani Masri, a Ramallah, West Bank-based political analyst. “We used to see this on the fringes, not among ministers.”
The new Israeli government has already prompted greater focus on whether the two-state solution — the term for a peace deal that would create a Palestinian state alongside Israel — is not just unlikely but impossible. The government’s statement of guiding principles began with a direct assertion of the Jewish people’s exclusive right to Israel and the occupied West Bank.
Another coalition agreement promised to formally annex the West Bank at a time of Netanyahu’s choice and to legalize dozens of unauthorized settlements in the territory.
For now, Netanyahu has restrained some of his more hard-line ministers from fully exerting their will in the West Bank.
This month, he ignored demands from Bezalel Smotrich, a far-right minister, to stop the army from evicting an unauthorized Israeli settlement in the territory. But it is unclear how long he can continue to deny his coalition partner: He has promised to give Smotrich power over the military department that oversees construction and demolition in Israeli-administered parts of the territory.
Through public and private interventions, the United States has also tried to avert some ministers’ more drastic goals in the West Bank. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is set to visit Jerusalem and Ramallah on Monday and Tuesday, in a long-planned visit.
But analysts doubt much can be achieved, given the high emotions after last week’s events.
Internal divisions within Palestinian society and its leadership will also impede efforts to salve the situation. The Palestinian Authority, the semi-autonomous body that has administered most Palestinian towns and cities in the West Bank since the 1990s, is deeply unpopular among ordinary Palestinians, many of whom accuse it of collaboration with Israel for coordinating with Israeli security forces.
Since the authority’s establishment, its police and intelligence officers have cooperated with Israeli counterparts, sharing intelligence that officials say has helped thwart attacks, retreating to their barracks during Israeli raids, and sometimes arresting Palestinian gunmen deemed a threat by Israel.
To supporters, the coordination is a trust-building mechanism that helps stabilize relations with Israel and sets the stage for a Palestinian state. To detractors, including militant groups like Hamas, it is an act of betrayal and acquiescence to Israel that brings Palestinians little benefit, let alone sovereignty.