The end of a pandemic can’t be mandated
Recently, Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser urged an end to telework, citing the empty offices downtown, the economic engine of the district. The Washington Post soon followed, shortsightedly declaring that it is time federal employees return to the office. Then President Biden decided to go bigger, declaring that he was ending the pandemic emergency protections on May 11 for the entire U.S.
After more than three long years, everyone is tired of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it clearly has not yet run its course. Still, politicians and business owners are beating the drum of getting “back to normal,” even if normal doesn’t make sense.
The rationale for this back-to-theoffice, virus-be-damned movement is based on a specious logic. Case in point: Rep. James Comer’s “Stopping Home Office Work’s Unproductive Problems” Act (H.R. 139), also known as the SHOW UP Act. But the Kentucky Republican’s argument that on-site employees are more productive is wrong, and ignores data showing that employees working remotely can be, and often are, more productive than commuters. They tend to work longer hours, enjoy a better work-life balance and report being better able to concentrate.
Forcing employees to return to work will put their health at risk. There are currently about 450 deaths from COVID daily, according to the Centers for
Disease Control. The reported daily new cases hover around 40,400, but those case estimates are vastly undercounted since most people test at home now and that data is not collected. Furthermore, CDC estimated that 20% of people infected with SARSCOV2 may develop long COVID. Recent data from Kaiser Family Foundation suggest 15% of Adult Americans have reported long COVID symptoms at some point, and 6% are actively experiencing it. That 6% represents over 12 million Americans.
Harvard University economist David Cutler estimated the costs of long COVID at $3.7 trillion, $11,000 per person, or
17% of the 2019 gross domestic product. Even if you think the prevalence of long COVID is overstated, cutting these numbers in half, or to a quarter points toward a staggering human and economic toll.
If politicians feel an imperative to get people back into the office, they have to make it safer to do so for both those working at home now and the millions
If we want employees to return to the office, we should offer them the “Davos standard” of protection.
who never had any choice — the frontline workers in grocery stores, Amazon warehouses, meatpacking plants, health care, and elsewhere, who had to show up or lose their jobs.
We know how to reduce the risk of COVID-19 infection. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) recently held in Davos, Switzerland, we saw vaccinations required for attendees, free PCR testing before the meeting, the ready availability of free high-quality (FFP2-94%) masks and rapid tests, and good ventilation and HEPA filters throughout the meeting spaces.
If we want employees to return to faceto-face work in the office, we should offer them the “Davos standard” of protection. Mandating a return to the office, without mandating protection on public transport or in workplaces, means we get to play Russian roulette with the virus, for ourselves, our families at home, and our communities.
This becomes more important with President Biden’s intention to end the pandemic public health emergency (PHE). The end of the PHE means that insurance may not cover these interventions and cost-sharing is certain to be put in place. With Pfizer and Moderna’s COVID vaccine prices going up 400%, these costs are likely to be forwarded to patients. Telemedicine will likely be severely curtailed, making it difficult for those with transportation difficulties to receive care. All of this will pose a disproportionate burden on the poor, elderly, rural and people of color, who have less access to medical care. Only those with resources will be able to afford rapid tests, the latest vaccines and treatments for COVID-19.
Forcing people back to work without public transit and workplace protections, just as the PHE is lifted, depriving millions of access to key interventions against the disease, may be good politics for some officials, but there is only one clear winner to their proposals and decisions: the virus, which is still very much with us, whether we care to acknowledge it or not.